Take a look at this Bloomberg story.  The key here is: “The first flight of the plane is projected to be in next year’s second half, Embraer said by e-mail, ahead of a planned commercial debut in 2018.”

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Embraer has been quiet about E2 progress.  In November Pratt & Whitney reported testing the aircraft’s engines has started.  With a planned roll-out in February, Embraer will start to reinforce interest in its next generation of the E-Jet.   By all appearances the E2 looks like being on-time.  Given industry performance to date, that is a remarkable performance.

Doing business in Brazil has to be tough. Politics and economics in Brazil have created an unstable environment for local industry.  There was a report that the Brazilian air force is behind on payments for the KC-390, which has to crimp Embraer‘s plans.  If Embraer pulls off the E2 program on-time, they deserve special kudos.

The emergence of  the E2 will pile on pressure for newly aggressive Bombardier.  And the combination of these two will almost certainly ruffle feathers in the Big Oligopoly.  2016 looks to be an interesting year!  The 100 seat market looks like it is heating up.  While this segment is too low for the Big Oligopoly, success here means pressure at the 130+ segment next.

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