GA Recovery is Slow but Positive in 2023 |

GAMA released its shipments and billings report for the second quarter of 2023, and the results are mildly positive for the general aviation market. The recovery is slow but positive through the second quarter. Year over year through Q2, business jet deliveries are up 2.4%, and the total value of shipments is up 1.5%. When compared with 2019, however, the industry remains behind pre-pandemic levels in 2019 in business jet deliveries. Which remain 11.1% lower and overall billings 6.6% lower. By contrast, the helicopter market has rebounded significantly, with turbine helicopters now exceeding pre-pandemic 2019 levels by 13.4% and 23.4% higher billings.The following chart summarizes data from 2019 to 2023 through the 2nd quarter for each year, comparing apples to apples. Seasonality in general aviation typically results in a very strong 4th quarter, and we expect 2023 to have slightly higher results than 2022. We do not believe the industry will match or exceed 2019 levels before 2025, as the recent drop in book-to-bill ratios for the major OEMs has them hovering about 1:1.Business Jets have the highest prices and drive revenues for the industry. There were 296 business jets delivered through Q2 2023, compared with 288 in 2022 and 333 in 2019. The breakdown by manufacturer is shown in the following table. Bombardier continued strong performance, as did Gulfstream, despite a product transition from the G650ER to the new G700. Dassault has begun production of the Falcon 6X, which was recently certified, and is expected to increase Falcon deliveries. Embraer rebounded above 2019 levels, but Textron delivered eight fewer business jets than last year. Based on shipments, market share by company is shown in the following table. Shipment market share remains relatively stable for the major players in the segment. Graphically, the players show similar market share numbers over the last five years. Over the last two years and into 2023, supply chain constraints plague the industry and impact deliveries. Nonetheless, Embraer appears to be on an upward trajectory. At the same time, Gulfstream and Bombardier are ever so slightly downward or flat based on aircraft delivered but moving upward with larger and newer models. The following pie chart shows first-half 2023 deliveries by manufacturer -- Textron, Bombardier, Gulfstream, Cirrus, and Embraer make up the top five.Market share on a billings basis changes the order of the major players, with Cessna and Cirrus, who focus on smaller, less expensive jets, falling on a billings basis. With higher-priced aircraft, Gulfstream, Bombardier, and Dassault tend to improve their numbers when market share is calculated on a billings basis. The following table shows market share by billings. Note that Eclipse, which has returned to the market after a long hiatus, did not report any billings through the first half. Through the first half of 2023, Gulfstream, Bombardier, Textron, Dassault, and Embraer led billings market share in that order. While the top five players remain the same, the order changes significantly.The following graphic shows the billing market share in graphical form. Gulfstream shows a slight downward trend as they retool their product line, while Bombardier and Textron have shown modest growth over the past five years. In 2023, the market leaders on a billings basis are very close, with Bombardier coming in just behind Gulfstream at the top end of the market. The following pie chart shows billings market share through the first half of 2023. The Bottom LineThe small year-over-year growth in business jets reflects a relatively flat market despite a post-pandemic increase in demand for business jet travel. The fundamental problem for the business jet market is that aircraft average about 300-400 hours per year of utilization, or about 1 hour per day. With an average of 23 daily hours available, plenty of existing capacity can absorb additional demand in the near term without new orders.While the pandemic bump in demand was encouraging, data in 2023 indicate that business jet operations are level or slightly below 2022 levels, indicating that the bump may be over. Without increased demand, the industry will remain relatively stagnant over the next few years. While new aircraft from Gulfstream and Dassault will spark demand as new aircraft replace older aircraft, that demand will likely not be large enough to exceed 2019 deliveries for a few years.The business jet market remains relatively flat, and if we examine business jet deliveries over a longer period, we can see that there is still a long way to go if the industry is going to return to historic 2007-2008 levels. While replacing older aircraft with newer aircraft can help environmental performance, the industry is still a key target for environmentalists, facing calls for bans in several European countries. While the industry has pledged carbon neutrality by 2050, the only feasible means, given today's technology, is using Sustainable Aviation Fuel. Whether environmental benefits will harm the industry or provide the impetus for a massive fleet replacement remains to be seen. But we don't expect major changes in the near term, resulting in relatively flat to slow growth performance. While there was some optimism with the industry growth from 2015-2019, the global pandemic in 2020 crushed the growth. Recovery has been positive but very slow. We expect this pattern to continue for the next five years.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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