GA Recovery is Slow but Positive in 2023

GAMA released its shipments and billings report for the second quarter of 2023, and the results are mildly positive for the general aviation market. The recovery is slow but positive through the second quarter. Year over year through Q2, business jet deliveries are up 2.4%, and the total value of shipments is up 1.5%.

When compared with 2019, however, the industry remains behind pre-pandemic levels in 2019 in business jet deliveries. Which remain 11.1% lower and overall billings 6.6% lower. By contrast, the helicopter market has rebounded significantly, with turbine helicopters now exceeding pre-pandemic 2019 levels by 13.4% and 23.4% higher billings.

The following chart summarizes data from 2019 to 2023 through the 2nd quarter for each year, comparing apples to apples. Seasonality in general aviation typically results in a very strong 4th quarter, and we expect 2023 to have slightly higher results than 2022. We do not believe the industry will match or exceed 2019 levels before 2025, as the recent drop in book-to-bill ratios for the major OEMs has them hovering about 1:1.

Business Jets have the highest prices and drive revenues for the industry. There were 296 business jets delivered through Q2 2023, compared with 288 in 2022 and 333 in 2019. The breakdown by manufacturer is shown in the following table. Bombardier continued strong performance, as did Gulfstream, despite a product transition from the G650ER to the new G700. Dassault has begun production of the Falcon 6X, which was recently certified, and is expected to increase Falcon deliveries. Embraer rebounded above 2019 levels, but Textron delivered eight fewer business jets than last year.

Based on shipments, market share by company is shown in the following table. Shipment market share remains relatively stable for the major players in the segment.