737 MAX Back in Service Delayed Due to New Flight Issues

News The news of additional problems with the 737MAX broke yesterday, as additional software and potentially hardware issues with the flight control computers could result in placing the aircraft in a nosedive with inadequate time for pilots to appropriately respond. We had indications of this problem earlier, and while we do not report on rumors - we did adjust our re-entry into service timing to December as regular readers know. According to reports in the media, Boeing agrees with the FAA’s assessment of a problem and believes that it could be fixed with software. But this problem is not with MCAS, but separate flight control systems and the flaw is related to an emergency procedure that can be used by pilots in the event of an MCAS malfunction. If the software fix does not work, Boeing may need to replace a computer chip in the roughly 500 MAX aircraft that have been built, which could result in additional delays as the new chips are FAA certified. Analysis The timeline has shifted to the right, as we previously predicted. Depending on whether the fix is software or hardware will impact the time frame - but typically when the possibility of a hardware fix is disclosed publicly, it is likely. “Boeing will not offer the 737 MAX for certification by the FAA until we have satisfied all requirements for certification of the MAX and its safe return to service,” was disclosed in an SEC filing. An FAA spokesman indicated “the FAA recently found a potential risk that Boeing must mitigate,” and indicated that the agency is following a thorough process and has no timeline regarding a return to service. The new problem apparently is related to the electric switches on both the yoke to get the aircraft into level flight and stabilize the aircraft. This is in addition to the issue of the physical strength required to manually move the trim wheel on the aircraft. It appears there are several issues yet to be resolved on the MAX. In the interim, costs for Boeing keep rising, as cash flow from sales are not coming in and Boeing continues to produce 42 aircraft per month. Insight When problems occur with flight control systems and logic, it can open up a can of worms. Boeing is experiencing the effect of several dominos falling into each other and cascading into a larger problem. The Boeing 737 began life as a analog airplane and its flight control computers were not designed for the levels of automation that today’s more advanced aircraft utilize. Once you begin to look at the flight control computers, this can extend to how the system is architected, choices of processor chips, installing and reprogramming multiple processors per FCC, new part numbers, and a cascading set of issues as the dominoes fall. Airplanes are complicated machines, with millions of parts and millions of lines of code. All it takes is one faulty part or one faulty piece of software to upset the apple cart. Combine that with the issue of training and making pilots better aware of procedures, with simulator training likely needed (and scant capacity available), the situation is not easy for Boeing. If Boeing is lucky and the newly identified problems can be fixed by software alone, the MAX will return to service before year end. If, however, the problems continue to cascade and more dominoes fall, we could be looking at a year on the ground and the end of Q1 2020 for a re-entry into service.

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