The Economist has a marvelous interactive chart on population that has significant implications for commercial aviation, and is fun to interact with. By 2030, nearly 9% of the world’s population will be living in just 41 megacities (those with more than 10m residents), according to the UN.
Looking at the charts, in 1950 there were, perhaps, three megacities. By 1960 there are about ten. By 1970 there were 17 and 1.5% of the global population was urbanized in these cities. In 1980 there were 23 megacities with 1.9% of the population. In 1990 there was a sharp growth, 28 megacities accounting for 2.9% of the population. In 2000, 35 mega-cities housed 4.2% of the population, growing to 5.3% in 2010, and projected to grow to 7.6% by 2020. The urbanization rate has been spectacular.
The difficulty for aviation is that urbanization means constraints. Airports in megacities are being crowded – they can’t grow physically, as they are land locked. Communities don’t want a new airport built anywhere close to their backyards. The ongoing fracas in London is but one example of the problems emerging worldwide.
