Premium #162 – Wild Swings in the 100-130 Seat Segment Orders

The recent first flight of the CS300 encouraged us to take another look at the segment it is to enter. The market segment between 100-130 seats is often thought of as one of the toughest segments in commercial aerospace. It has been a graveyard for many planes. The A318, 717, 737-500 and 737-600 are the most recent unsuccessful models. And based on new orders, it seems the A319neo and 737-700/7MAX might similarly stumble here.

The following chart shows orders in this segment from 2000 to the present, after the demise of the Fokker100 and Avro RJ. The Duopoly (Airbus & Boeing) had this space to themselves until 2002, when the Embraer 190/195 came on stream, driving down the Duopoly market share.   By 2004 the Duopoly aggressively reacted to the post-911 recovery, but peaked in 2006 and has barely been heard from since in this segment, as it has upsold customers to larger models.