Premium 2018.16 – THE COMING AFTERMARKET REVOLUTION

Aircraft, engine, and component OEMs are now focusing more closely on the aftermarket, buoyed by information technology.  The introduction of “more advanced” aircraft health management systems will enable the gathering of real-time information on the condition of components, the opportunity to analyze failure modes and rates, and to generate predictive models for component replacement based on trend analyses.  That ability, to reduce unexpected component failures that could result in an aircraft on ground situation, provides dramatic cost savings to airline customers.

With access to fleet-wide data, Boeing

, Airbus, Bombardier, and Embraer will for the first time have a distinctive new product for the aftermarket – predictive failure assessment.  But the collection and analysis of Peta-bytes of information annually is neither an easy task nor one that can be offered for free.  Airlines who choose to receive analytics on their aircraft will be expected to subscribe to an aftermarket service, which should generate substantial revenue for the airframe OEMs.

With airframe OEMs moving closer and closer to a by the hour model covering line replaceable units (“LRUs”), similar to arrangements provided by engine manufacturers, the cost of analytics could be “built into” those maintenance programs at little cost by the OEM, since it will help them minimize costs and maximize benefits for an airline.  This will place third-party OEMs, who lack fleet-wide data and the benefits of analytics, at a significant disadvantage.  He who controls the data and the actionable information that results from analysis of that data will have a substantial market advantage.