Premium #341 – New Technology Aircraft Take Longer to Develop

Having been around the industry for more years than we’d like to admit, our perception is that new programs are taking much longer to develop than they did in the past. Back in the “good old” days, it seemed that Boeing or Douglas would announce an airplane, and four years later it would be entering service, plus or minus a few days. Today, we’ve seen major program development delays at Boeing with the 787, Airbus with the A380, Bombardier with the CSeries. Even when aircraft are certified, problems can crop up with additional delays, as on the 787, and teething problems with major suppliers, including the Pratt & Whitney GTF engines used on several models and capacity issues at Zodiac have been impacting deliveries at Airbus and Bombardier. As aircraft have become more complex, the time required to design and build them is increasing, as is getting the supply chain fully on board. We’ve gathered some data on the first type of each program (the most difficult, as derivatives are typically much faster to certify) to determine if a trend is noticeable. The following table takes the data of first order, date of first flight, and date of certification for each model as a basis for comparison. We first examined the development time for each program - the number of days from the first order until the aircraft’s first flight. While not an exactly spaced time series, we ordered the aircraft from earliest (747-100) to the latest (MRJ) in the following graphic. The trend is clearly upward over time, with the most recent programs on the right side of the chart generally longer in gestation than earlier programs. There appears to be a meaningful difference in programs from the 1960s-1990s versus those in the 2000s-present timeframe. Is Increasing Complexity to Blame? The reasons for the increase in development time may be centered in complexity. One complexity is new and innovative materials, such as composites, which behave differently than traditional metal components. We are currently seeing an evolution from the carbon fiber pre-preg composites that started the revolution in materials to the use of thermoplastic composites that can be produced “out of autoclave” and provide labor savings. Another is the complexity of software as “fly by wire” systems have become the new standard for commercial aircraft operations. These systems require millions of lines of software code, which takes time to program, debug, test, re-test, and re-test again to ensure that the appropriate control limitations are incorporated without compromising aircraft safety. A third complexity is the integration of computer controls of the aircraft with those of the engine. Today’s FADEC controlled engines must interface with the aircraft’s throttle and optimize performance. Software integration between multiple sets of controls need to interface properly at all times, even though they are written by disparate groups, often in different parts of the world. With sensors on board, active aircraft health management systems, and “big data” being downloaded from new technology aircraft, IT development is now on the critical path of aircraft development. Testing Tribulations? But even after the design period and first flight, it appears that the period between first flight and certification is also growing, as shown in the chart below. The more recent programs, on the right side of the chart, appear to have grown by about half a year when compared to older programs. Have certification requirements become tougher? Not really, but with more advanced avionics and software, the volume of things to test is increasing. More to do typically takes either more people or more time. But because of the sequential nature of some activities, adding people won’t necessarily reduce the time line, so the process takes longer. The Bottom Line: What once was an “announce and 4 years later enter service” rule of thumb for aircraft has now been replaced with “announce and 6 years later enter service, if all goes well, and 7 years if we find a problem.” The time to develop new aircraft is increasing, and airlines waiting nearly a decade for their new aircraft is not uncommon. Unfortunately, what things look like today, versus what they will look like in a decade may not be the same, and forward planning has become more difficult for both airlines and OEMs.

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