
The 2026 fiscal year for Ryanair begins in April, and the company has again cut its traffic target for the year. The cut is due to the inability of Boeing to deliver the expected number of 737 MAX 8-200 aircraft to meet the target, which had already been revised downward last November from initial expectations. This latest cut eliminates four million passengers from their forecast, down to 206 million from 210 million.
Delayed Aircraft
Ryanair believes that the reason for additional delays stems from Boeing’s recovery from the IAM strike, generating worse than expected delays. In a statement, the company reported “while B737 production is recovering from Boeing’s strike in late 2024, we no longer expect Boeing to deliver sufficient aircraft ahead of summer 2025 to facilitate the fiscal year of 2026 traffic growth to 210 million passengers.”
There are 29 aircraft outstanding from its order for 210 MAX 8-200 aircraft that have now been pushed to the right, and Ryanair now hopes to receive them before March 2026. Ryanair expects that Boeing 737 MAX production will rise to the current FAA mandated maximum rate of 38 per month by the end of summer.
Ryanair is also expecting its first 15 deliveries from its 737 MAX 10 order in Spring 2027. It is clear that Boeing’s compensation payments or credits to Ryanair will increase with the further delays. While certification of the MAX 7 and MAX 10 are well down the road, the FAA will need to sign off on an exemption request to maintain the current schedule.
Ryanair reported its third quarter FY 2025 results, with a 10% increase in revenue YoY to €2.96 billion. Operating costs were €2.93 billion, up 8% YoY, with 44.9 million customers, up 9%, and a stable load factor of 92%. The airline reported an increase in net profit to €149 million up tenfold from €14.8 million last year. Full year 2026 net income guidance is for a net profit between €1.55 to €1.61 billion for FY 2026.
Changing Circumstances
The European market continues to evolve, and that evolution impacts Ryanair. In presenting its expectations, the carrier expressed its thoughts on the airline environment. “We expect European short-haul capacity to remain constrained in 2025 as many of Europe’s Airbus operators continue to work through Pratt & Whitney engine repairs, both major OEMs struggle with delivery backlogs, and EU airline consolidation continues, including Lufthansa’s takeover of ITA, Air France-KLM’s stake in SAS and the upcoming sale of TAP.”
The airline has 85% of its fuel hedged for Q4 2025 at $80 per barrel and 75% for FY 2026 at $77 per barrel. As a result, fuel price volatility should have minimal impacts at Ryanair.
The Bottom Line
The carrier appears well positioned for continued growth, apart from the aircraft delivery constraints at Boeing. Ryanair is hopefully that Boeing can increase production rates to its current FAA maximum, and that deliveries in 2026 will enable the company to fully meet its FY 2027 goals.
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