Supply chain stress might not be so bad |

One way to see if the supply chain is coping is through new deliveries. To make a new delivery, all the parts are assembled, test flights are completed, the paperwork is signed, and money changes hands. There are questions about the state of the aero supply chain. Being a leap year, we have data through February 29th to evaluate. Here's what our model shows. We have been tracking new deliveries since January 2021. The chart shows that 2024 January and February look better than in previous years, even with an extra day in February. [caption id="attachment_81753" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] The chart suggests that, on a macro level, the aerospace supply chain might be in better shape than many suggest. This is very positive news and runs counter to what some are saying. For example, there has been panic about GTF-powered aircraft being parked. Meanwhile, Pratt & Whitney was highly conservative and manages the repair process well. MTU, a GTF partner company, reported adjusted EBIT of €221m in the quarter, slightly higher than the consensus estimate of €218m. MTU noted that it started work on the recalled engines and that the time taken to perform initial shop visits has aligned with forecasts. Together with P&W, MTU is focused on adding more engine MRO capacity for the GTF and reducing the turnaround time on each engine shop visit. Yes, it was not the outcome either company wanted, but they are managing. A final GTF comment: P&W had an excellent show in Singapore with many orders. Next, let's look at Airbus. The first two months of 2024 look good. Both are ahead of past years. Airbus cannot achieve this with a badly broken supply chain. Airbus is confident it will deliver 800 aircraft in 2024. [caption id="attachment_81755" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] Next, here's the data for Boeing. Here, the trends are more complex. Boeing had hundreds of parked MAXs to deliver, and once that process was started, aircraft were delivered quickly. The production rate did not hamper these deliveries. [caption id="attachment_81756" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] Boeing has seen MAX deliveries stumble from another "quality escape." While the production rate for the MAX is stuck at 38, several parked MAXs can be delivered. From this parked pool, China is taking aircraft and the source of Akasa's growth in India. As noted, the situation at Boeing is unusual. Even rate 38 requires a steady supply chain delivering the myriad parts. Remember that these two OEMs account for over 90% of new aircraft deliveries. How it goes for them, it goes for everyone. A key metric: the industry's monthly average (over the period we are tracking) delivery rate is 100 aircraft. Based on that average, January and February 2024 are below average. But ahead of previous equitant periods.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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