clouds scaled
With the recent update to the T-100 dataset, we updated our US Traffic models. We want to share one of these today. It has five pages. The dataset is the T-100 Segment for US Carriers and is current through June 2025.
Even though the US DOT reporting runs later than anyone wants, it remains the most granular source of its kind. Pouring through their datasets provides insight into what the industry is doing, and context for what industry executives say at conferences.
For example, United’s Scott Kirby made some controversial statements this past week. Using page three of the model below, select Chicago and then select both American and United Airlines. He claimed American would need to dehub O’Hare; the selection from the model seems to support his claim. He also said Spirit Airlines would go out of business. Selecting Spirit on the menus gives you some idea of how it has been doing. The data is what you need to get an unemotional view of these statements.
- The first page outlines our standard approach, providing a “big picture” view. The upper chart displays traffic volumes. The lower chart displays market share by airline type. This second chart is especially of interest as the ULCC market evolves with Spirit Airlines’ bankruptcy. You can clearly see the power the network airlines wield. Several network changes are happening now.
- This page provides a view of international flights. Select a destination to see how the US carriers are performing.
- This page allows you to select any of the top 25 US origin cities and the traffic split by airline. It is clear how fortress hubs enable the big airlines. We’ve been watching fortress hubs since 2019.
- Here, we can see the movement over time. Click the “play” button at the bottom left to view the movement. You can also click any of the balls to see its track over time. Ball size is based on the number of passengers.
- This page offers some interactions – select an origin airport to see where most of its traffic went. Note also the lower chart showing typical loads per flight. As you go through the choices, notice how the upper chart shows concentrations.
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