Yesterday’s news about another wave of US airline consolidation got us to think about what the patterns look like. Here is a model starting in the year 2000 through the most recent 2021 data (July). 

The model confirms that the ULCCs are growing across the board, even beyond the US domestic market.  Even LCCs are growing outside the US domestic market.  Considering that US ULCCs consist of Allegiant, Frontier, and Spirit, the merger of the latter two creates a formidable competitor.  This competitor becomes more formidable when considering its reach with a growing fleet of A321neos.  No market north or south of the US is safe for incumbents.  Greenland and Iceland are within easy reach as are several parts of Westen Europe.

There are three pages:

    • Page 1 – This allows you to select the market, US Domestic or International, and airline for a specific look. The upper chart shows actual passenger counts and “mousing” over any item in the chart produces a data point.
    • Page 2 – International Market – select specific markets and airline
    • Page 3 – US domestic market with Top 25 cities to select from

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Addison Schonland
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Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous like includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.

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