Premium #130 – What if there was a 767MAX?

The recent moves by Airbus and Boeing away from all-new programs signify a distinct trend – new airplane designs are very expensive and complicated. They are high-risk projects that are better avoided until technologies offer much greater deltas between the current and potential economics. The A380, 787, and CSeries delay experiences created a perception of increased risk, the reality is that engine technology drives aircraft economics, and that capital costs are increasingly important to airlines in today’s environment.

That is why we see the A330neo, the A320neo from Airbus

, the E2 from Embraer, the 737MAX and the 747-8 and 777X (that are really 747MAX and 777MAX) from Boeing. Tweaking basic designs offers much lower risk and the potential to still significantly improve economics.  Airlines clamored for winglets and these only provided between 3-5% better economics. The re-engined and re-winged aircraft (neo & MAX) offer double digit improvements. Orders have flowed in as airlines endorse the low risk solutions.

New designs like the 787 and A350 are doing fine, and will prove to be good, and perhaps excellent, airplanes. But the risk factor is something many airlines would rather stay back from until the aircraft are proven. Delta Air Lines is the most glaring example; the airline refuses to buy aircraft that are, by its definition, “not mature”.  Moreover, by offering the 767 as the base for the USAF tanker, Boeing clearly sees how effective the basic design is.  Boeing will be building and supporting 767 tankers for the next fifty years.