FlightAware just put out the following data on the equipage rates for August.  FlightAware’s data is for turbine-powered, business aircraft registered in the United States. The chart below sums it up.

Given the short period to year-end and compliance, it would seem reasonable to assume that close to 2,000 aircraft are going to be “not compliant”.

The FAA published Federal 14 CFR § 91.225 and 14 CFR § 91.227 in May 2010. The final rule dictates that effective January 1, 2020, aircraft operating in airspace defined in 91.225 are required to have an Automatic Dependent – Broadcast (-B) system that includes a certified position source capable of meeting requirements defined in 91.227. These regulations set a minimum performance standard for both ADS-B Transmitter and the position sources integrated with the ADS-B equipment the aircraft.

Regarding the need for ADS-B, the FAA states: The requirements of the ADS-B rule apply only to the airspace defined in 14 CFR § 91.225, regardless of whether or not the operation is conducted under VFR or IFR. It’s an airspace rule and does not apply to any type of operation outside defined airspace.

The FAA goes to state: Aircraft operating in Class A airspace must have equipment installed that meets the antenna and power output requirements of Class A1, A1S, A2, A3, B1S, or B1 equipment as defined in TSO-C166b, Extended Squitter Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) and Traffic Information Service-Broadcast (TIS-B) Equipment Operating on the Radio Frequency of 1090 Megahertz (MHz).  Aircraft operating in airspace designated for ADS-B Out, but outside of Class A airspace, must have equipment installed that meets the antenna and output power requirements.

Class A airspace is defined as Generally, airspace from 18,000 feet mean sea level (MSL) up to and including flight level (FL) 600, including the airspace overlying the waters within 12 nautical miles (NM) of the coast of the 48 contiguous states and Alaska. Unless otherwise authorized, all pilots must operate their aircraft under instrument flight rules (IFR). 

Consequently, the approximately 2,000 aircraft that may not be ADS-B compliant by January 1 will either be retired or have to remain outside Class A airspace.  Staying out of Class A airspace is probably not a problem for the majority of the non-ADS-B compliant aircraft.

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