DBEA55AED16C0C92252A6554BC1553B2 Clicky DBEA55AED16C0C92252A6554BC1553B2 Clicky
April 15, 2024
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We have updated our global traffic model as the IATA AGM winds down.  Air traffic continues to recover across several markets.

The model defines markets by size, and each page reflects a tier. If we did not tier these markets, the charts would be too busy and hard to read.

Note that reporting updates vary widely, and some markets, like Nigeria, are far behind in reporting. The upper chart lists domestic passenger traffic.  The lower chart lists the same data but uses January 2019 as a base period.

  • Tier 1: The upper chart shows China and USA in good recovery phases.  India and EU data are running late.  The base chart shows all three markets are over 100 and have fully recovered from the pandemic.
  • Tier 2:  Brazil shows the strongest recovery from the pandemic in volume.  But Mexico shows the best recovery from the base period. Canadian and Australian traffic was throttled back by government policy but now shows rapid acceleration. These two markets should recover fully within the next reporting period.
  • Tier 3: There is some disparity in this tier.  South Africa is the strongest volume market and shows strong recovery over the base period.  Given the country’s economic crisis, with several airlines failing, the numbers are surprising.  Chile’s decline this year looks odd.
  • Tier 4: The odd market is Nigeria, which is over a year behind in reporting. It was the first market in this tier to recover.   Argentina, despite the economic crisis, has shown a strong recovery.
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Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.

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