Airbus and Boeing have a huge mountain to climb to meet delivery targets

Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury and his Boeing counterpart David Calhoun are known for their optimism and realism. These treats might have been most helpful when they studied the Q3 deliveries in the past few days. Both will have acknowledged that their companies have a tremendous job ahead of them if they want to deliver on the targets for aircraft deliveries set out earlier this year. Let’s have a deeper look. Subscribers can view our 25-page data model here. Airbus While interesting, 55 deliveries in September is not what Faury will have looked at. It is the number of deliveries year-to-date. This stands at 488, up from 316 at the end of June, halfway through 2023. That’s 162 deliveries in Q3. [caption id="attachment_77742" align="aligncenter" width="714"] AirInsight Tracking[/caption] Then, remember that Airbus reiterated its target of 720 deliveries for 2023. It must deliver 232 aircraft in October, November, and December to reach this. That’s almost as many as in the first six months, which started slowly with just 20 deliveries in January. February was better at 46, followed by 61 in March, 54 in April, 63 in May, 72 in June, 65 in July, 52 in August, and 55 in September. Delivering 232 aircraft in Q4 means that Airbus would have to get 77 to 78 aircraft per month out of the door. As you can see from the numbers for this year, this is a considerable challenge. The supply chain might have recovered somehow, but Faury found it too early to see a sustained improvement when he discussed the HY1 results in July. This came from another Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbofan issue, which has worsened since then. Engines, seats, landing gear, and various parts are coming in late. There is reason for optimism, however. Comparing the first nine months of 2023 to 2022, this year looks better. For example, Airbus has delivered 222 A321neos this year compared to 169 until September 2022. The number of A320neo’s is almost on par at 163/165, with the A319neo on par at 6/6. The A220 is slightly ahead at 41 deliveries this year compared to 35 last year through September. The A330neo is at 20 deliveries (18 -900s) this year versus 15 last year on widebodies. But the A350-900 is lagging behind with 27 deliveries versus 35 until September 30 last year. The A350-1000 is at nine aircraft, up from seven. Last year, Airbus had to reduce its full-year delivery target twice, from 820 to 800 to ‘around 700’ in early December. It actually delivered 661 aircraft, including 264 A321neo’s, 246 A320neo’s, 52 A350-900s, 47 A220-300s, 20 A330-900s, 10 A350-1000s, 6 A220-100s and 6 A319neo’s, 5 A330-200s, 4 A330-300s, and 3 A330-800s. Boeing Boeing isn’t guiding full-year deliveries in the same way as Airbus does. The US airframer doesn’t offer a number for all models but shared targets for individual models. This year, the 737 P-8A and MAX are guided at 400-450 deliveries, and the 787 and 70 to 80. So, where do they stand at the end of September? [caption id="attachment_77744" align="aligncenter" width="732"] AirInsight Tracking[/caption] The 737/MAX is at 286 deliveries. That’s another 114 needed to meet the lower end of the guidance of 164 if Boeing wants to get to 450 deliveries this year. By month, deliveries reached 36 in January, 25 in February, 53 in March, 18 in April, 36 in May, 49 in June, 33 in July, 22 in August, and 15 in September. These 286 compares to 276 for the first nine months of 2022. That’s a rollercoaster ride, which can be explained by the need for rework on the vertical tailfin fittings from April, followed by that on the aft pressure bulkhead from August. While David Calhoun and Chief Financial Officer Brian West want to get to a stable 31 per month, the reality is that Boeing is still struggling to get there. It will need a consistent 38 deliveries each month of Q4 if it wants to meet 114 deliveries for the quarter and 400 for the full year. Based on previous quarters, reaching 450 looks optimistic and almost out of reach. The Dreamliner is doing better despite its troubles with reworking all aircraft in inventory. Deliveries stand at 50 aircraft year-to-date compared to just nine last year, when deliveries resumed only in August after a long production pause over quality issues. With 50 deliveries, Boeing is 20 to 30 short of reaching the full-year guidance. By month, Boeing delivered 3 Dreamliners in January and February, 7 in March, 6 in April, 8 in May, 6 in June, 4 in July, 5 in August, and 10 in September. If Boeing can repeat the Q3 result of 19 deliveries, it might reach 70 deliveries this year. Anything better, and this box can be ticked. As for the 767-2C and the 767-300F, deliveries stand at 6 for the military/tanker version and 11 for the full freighter. That’s a combined 17 aircraft, identical to the 777Fs delivered through September. There is also the last 747 in the book. In 2022, Boeing delivered 480 aircraft. They included 387 737/MAX, five 747s, 33 767s, 24 777s, and 31 787s. The bottom line Both OEMs face considerable challenges in meeting their delivery targets. They are used to years being back-loaded, with most deliveries done from the first days of December until the Christmas break and often even in the last week of the year. In the case of Airbus, it depends on the availability of parts, while Boeing has rework to factor in. As Brian West said in September, the pressure bulkhead will require more time to be completed as the part must be X-rayed and repaired. Don’t be surprised if Airbus lowers its guidance in early December again because 77 deliveries per month for each of the final three is probably asking too much.

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