Yesterday Airbus provided their monthly update. Here’s our updated model.
Airbus is having an order blowout year – which is not the way it looked even after the summer Paris airshow. It has the products the airlines and lessors want – specifically the A321neo/LR/XLR. On the first page note how the 2019 orders for the A321neo far outstrip the A320neo. This is the first we have seen this.
There seems to be a strong move towards larger single-aisle aircraft. On Page 4 notice how Delta is not only still #1 for deliveries. Notice also what it is taking delivery of – the A220-100 and the A321ceo/neo. Delta is an industry bellwether and we think these deliveries are going to be highly disruptive in the US and in the intra-Americas.  The A330-900 is also likely to provide the airline with longer-haul flights across the Pacific.
Airbus has to deliver 135 aircraft this month to meet its annual target. November saw 77 deliveries. This will be a tough goal to meet.
Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.
