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Industry watchers have been waiting for COMAC to deliver on its promise. With a large order book and a patient investor in the Chinese state, COMAC has the key ingredients to develop aircraft, test them, and deliver to the market under much less pressure than its Western competitors.
COMAC has undoubtedly taken its time—the C919 was launched in 2008, and the C909 (formerly ARJ21) started in 2002. COMAC falls into what we define as Tier 2 OEMs, as opposed to Airbus and Boeing, which are Tier 1 and the famous duopoly. The Tier 2 group includes Embraer. The data curve for Embraer below may look low – we are working with the OEM to double-check the data.
The chart highlights COMAC’s rise and, as we state, finding its “mojo.”
With the friendliest captive market, COMAC is focused on Chinese customers. News of a Singapore and Hong Kong office being opened shows ambition growth. These are good signs for COMAC and the industry. The news also comports well with the curve in the chart above. COMAC is flexing its growing abilities. It helps that the duopoly is way out of balance. Just as Embraer can exploit this opportunity, so can COMAC. Both these two OEMs, however, aren’t going to get the same level of supply chain attention as the duopoly. The supply chain is too wobbly to take any bets. It might be a few years before supply chain firms can take bigger bets. Of the two, Embraer has the lower risk profile and will win this support first.
The following chart illustrates another aspect of COMAC’s rising abilities. Delivery days are the period between the first flight and delivery. You expect this number to decline as the OEM’s industrialization matures and accelerates.
The chart shows COMAC undergoing some gyrations since 2008. The high levels at the start are typical—we see the same for Airbus, Boeing, and Embraer. The curve has declining peaks, reflecting the maturing of processes. Remember that the period shown includes the pandemic, which hit China hard. The move down is impressive.
The final chart illustrates just how impressive COMAC’s performance has been.
We see that COMAC is higher than the older OEMs. The lowest number is Airbus, which has an average delivery day period of 23. Next is Boeing at 42, which reflects the program disruptions, meaning the number should be the same as Airbus. Embraer is at 52. COMAC is currently at 68. This level of performance is impressive. Boeing is over 100 years old, and COMAC was founded in 2008. COMAC has been able to learn from its competitors, and it has learned well.
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