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December 1, 2023
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As we did for Airbus, we now have a model for you to evaluate orders and deliveries.  As always, use the double-headed arrow on the gray bar to optimize your screen.

As you will note when you select 2019, the big news is the drop off in MAX orders. The recent MAX news is less of a factor over the past quarter than the market being “fully ordered”.  The same applies to Airbus and the A320 family – except for the A321.

The big news for Boeing has been the ongoing success of the 787.  The Lufthansa order was the big one during the first quarter.  There were also a handful of 787-10 orders that are unspoken for at present.

For deliveries, there were 57 MAX this past quarter.  That is obviously going to drop off dramatically for several months. To get an idea of how significant MAX is to deliveries, select 2018 for a perspective, and then add the NGs to the MAX numbers.  The hurt will become more into focus as the Renton plant stops making NGs.  MAX production will be stored and updated before deliveries, and these updates cannot start until these are approved.  And that is likely going to take some time.  The agencies tasked with approvals are going to be painstaking as the risk of another accident has to be brought as close to zero as possible. As “close to zero” is an amorphous definition – so everyone will err on the side of most exacting inspection and tests.  What is not amorphous is that this will take a lot of time.  And it is highly likely this will roll over into the 777X program as well.  Indeed, any “new” aircraft anywhere is now likely to face a more rigorous certification process.

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Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.

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