AirInsight
The swing at Boeing since the start of the Kelly Ortberg era is quite dramatic. We have been saying Boeing is making a comeback for months as we track daily deliveries. Here is a big picture view of the past decade for perspective.
This chart covers the past decade. There was a period when Boeing was run by Dennis Muilenburg, followed by Dave Calhoun, and finally Kelly Ortberg. We were critical of Dennis Muilenburg’s leadership. Let’s focus on the Calhoun and the Ortberg Eras.
The charts use the official data from Airbus and Boeing. They reflect “official” duopoly numbers. The red dashed lines reflect 50%, the ideal where a stable duopoly would coexist.
The Calhoun Era
- Initially, the Calhoun Era starts strongly after the MAX crisis. Everyone was hoping for a better time with stability. After all, this was also the pandemic.
- 2021, only a year after this era started, was the high point for Boeing in terms of order share. Customers must have sensed something that made them shy away.
- And it got steadily worse. Airbus outdelivered Boeing because of the MAX crisis. Boeing endured a series of MAX-related issues, culminating in Alaska 1282. It was an awful period. Here’s a 42-minute video of Dave Calhoun speaking to the media two years ago. You decide how convincing this was. As the data shows, customers were not. We were not convinced of Dave Calhoun’s leadership.
- The crisis during this era at Boeing is well documented – a web search provides a plethora of evidence.
- The Calhoun Era saw the breakdown of the duopoly and created longtail impacts across the global supply chain.
The Ortberg Era
- Kelly Ortberg could only make things better. Note that the 2025 data is through August, so there are four months to go for a full year.
- Like the start of the Calhoun Era, the Ortberg Era also sees an initial bounce in orders. But the Ortberg Era bounce is significant and comes within striking range of the red line.
- Crucially, Boeing deliveries also saw a significant improvement. Boeing hasn’t been this close to the line since 2018.
- Whereas orders reflect customer outlook, deliveries reflect labor productivity. The ideal is where there is harmony on both sides. Both sides of orders and deliveries, as well as both sides of the duopoly.
- Suppose the Ortberg Era is indeed a new period of a different management style, and the 2025 numbers are carried forward into the following years. In that case, the Ortberg Era might be the foundation stone that reflects the big swing we see so far.
- Boeing shares have risen significantly from their lows after Ortberg’s appointment. Analyst upgrades have followed, citing signs of steady recovery in production. Reports describe a shift in culture: more accountability, clearer values, more transparency.
- The Ortberg Era isn’t in stable air yet. The MAX 7 and 10, as well as the 777-9, need certification. But, even with these items, Boeing is in a much better place, to the relief of the supply chain, and even in Toulouse.
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