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May 30, 2024
Breeze Airways
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Yesterday Breeze Aviation Group, Inc., David Neeleman’s new US airline, made a new filing.   The filing of a redacted T-5 is to keep certain data away from prying eyes (competitors).  Here’s the data filed.

The plan shown reflects steady and deliberate progress through the first 12 months. First revenue passengers come in month four.  Then it accelerates quickly.  And the plan goes from three airplanes in month one to 19 by month 12, with 13 in operation.  Month 12 shows each aircraft doing about 2.5 flights per day.

The plan is especially of interest now because of the collapse in US air travel.  Does this plan reflect anything one can comprehend? Is real in any way at all?  That’s the negative view of things.

But David Neeleman is not coming to his first rodeo.  If his deal to sell TAP to Lufthansa went through, it reflects exquisite timing. (We’re waiting for confirmation)

Cash flush, Neeleman can afford to amp up Breeze in the midst of the US domestic airline collapse. People do need and want to travel.  US domestic air travel has been the feedstock for comedians for decades.  Neeleman is focused on bringing humanity back to air travel.  Moreover, Breeze has the advantage of deciding when Month 1 starts.

Imagine if, in the midst of the industry collapse, a new well-funded airline startup comes along and offers service. Great service in fact. One only has to look at Neeleman’s record on service to know he’ll deliver on that.  What a great time to start an airline as the competition is in full collapse.  It may sound crazy, but if Neeleman did sell TAP then the Breeze plan shown above might, in fact, be too conservative.

It’s still a big IF – Did (or will) the TAP deal go through?  For the buyers, it’s a good protective move.  But given the market now, that move is very tough to do.

author avatar
Addison Schonland
Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.

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