Yesterday Breeze Aviation Group, Inc., David Neeleman’s new airline, made a new filing.   The filing of a redacted T-5 is to keep certain data away from prying eyes (competitors).  Here’s the data filed.

The plan shown reflects steady and deliberate progress through the first 12 months. First revenue passengers come in month four.  Then it accelerates quickly.  And the plan goes from three airplanes in month one to 19 by month 12, with 13 in operation.  Month 12 shows each aircraft doing about 2.5 per day.

The plan is especially of interest now because of the collapse in air travel.  Does this plan reflect anything one can comprehend? Is real in any way at all?  That’s the negative view of things.

But David Neeleman is not coming to his first rodeo.  If his deal to sell TAP to Lufthansa went through, it reflects exquisite timing. (We’re waiting for confirmation)

Cash flush, Neeleman can afford to amp up Breeze in the midst of the domestic collapse. People do need and want to travel.  US domestic air has been the feedstock for comedians for decades.  Neeleman is focused on bringing humanity back to air travel.  Moreover, Breeze has the advantage of deciding when Month 1 starts.

Imagine if, in the midst of the industry collapse, a new well-funded startup comes along and offers service. Great service in fact. One only has to look at Neeleman’s record on service to know he’ll deliver on that.  What a great time to start an airline as the competition is in full collapse.  It may sound crazy, but if Neeleman did sell TAP then the Breeze plan shown above might, in fact, be too conservative.

It’s still a big IF – Did (or will) the TAP deal go through?  For the buyers, it’s a good protective move.  But given the market now, that move is very tough to do.

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