China’s slow aviation duopoly re-balance |

China is the second-largest commercial aviation market, making it a critical bellwether. The grounding of the MAX played havoc with Boeing's deliveries, but that restriction has eased in China, and deliveries are moving again. Here's a view on the slow rebalancing of the duopoly in China. Delaying Boeing MAX (and 787) deliveries had a big impact. The missing single-aisle were MAXs. [caption id="attachment_82461" align="aligncenter" width="553"] AirInsight[/caption] Digging into the data by OEM, we see the following: Boeing's market absence has been a serious market restriction. The rise of COMAC is also evident. Since COMAC is China-focused, this must be expected to continue. [caption id="attachment_82462" align="aligncenter" width="557"] AirInsight[/caption] The 2024 data covers the near end of the 1Q, and we can see the impact the MAX deliveries are already having. Even though Boeing has a MAX rate restriction of 38 per month, the parked fleet of previously built aircraft is now being moved to Chinese customers. That means the rate should not impede Boeing's MAX deliveries. Focusing on single-aisle deliveries, we gain critical insight into the Chinese market. [caption id="attachment_82463" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] Like other markets, China is seeing a switch to larger models—specifically, the move to A321. The absence of the MAX 10 continues to impede Boeing's success. Fortunately for Boeing, COMAC is focusing on the next C919 shrink. COMAC would be much better off stretching the C919. It will be interesting to monitor this market and these charts for 2024 because COMAC has a growing market impact, and Airbus has a Chinese FAL that now delivers outside the Chinese market. Fortunately, Boeing is in catch-up mode and has the MAX 8s the market needs. Moreover, as we explained yesterday, the MAX 8 is the market leader in its segment. However, the Chinese market is evolving and will demand MAX 10s, and the certification of that aircraft must be one of Boeing's greatest urgencies.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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