Comparing 787 costs at American and United |

We updated our engine model from the Form 41 data and found some interesting results. We don't have any answers, but the pictures tell a good story that prompts questions. Especially when you consider both airlines use GE engines on their 787s. We should have a competitive race. 787-8 [caption id="attachment_77856" align="aligncenter" width="580"] Source: Form 41 Table 5.2[/caption] Upper chart Going into the pandemic, United's hourly engine costs rose sharply compared to American. Coming out of the pandemic, United's costs remained higher and, starting in 2022, spiraled much higher than American's. Lower chart Fuel costs are close - which is a good metric since it is what you would expect. This is a source of confidence in the data - Form 41 is known for, shall we say, liberal data standards. Notice how fuel costs rose sharply from 2021 and peaked in 2Q22. 787-9 [caption id="attachment_77857" align="aligncenter" width="580"] Source: Form 41 Table 5.2[/caption] Upper chart Going into the pandemic, American's hourly engine costs were significantly higher than United's. In 1Q20, American was $879 compared to $299 at United. We see an odd switch in the more expensive airline by model. Why? After the pandemic, American's costs quickly jumped over United's again and kept rising. Meanwhile, United's costs returned to their historic trend. Lower chart Fuel costs are as close as we saw for the 787-8. Notice American's fuel costs are higher than United's. Can operations explain this? Moving to another data source (T-2), I developed the following model. Here, we compare the stage length (X-axis) with Fuel/flight (Y-axis). The ball size is the number of flights. American Airlines The chart tracks the behavior of both models for American. In 2023 (through (H23), these models at American are almost in the same spot. It appears that American has deployed both models on various routes - enough to spread fuel burn/flight widely. [caption id="attachment_77859" align="aligncenter" width="580"] Source: T-.2[/caption] United Airlines [caption id="attachment_77861" align="aligncenter" width="580"] Source: T-.2[/caption] United has deployed these models in distinct ways. The 787-8 has flow routes under 5,000 miles. The 787-9 routes start at about 5,000 miles and go as high as 6,350 miles. The United 787 fleet deployment appears consistent and, dare we say, logical. In case you are wondering about the 787-10 at United - it typically flies routes around 4,000 miles. In other words, it is similar to the 777-200s. But at 3.6% lower fuel burn. These two airlines operate their fleets differently, as shown in costs. Is American at a disadvantage? Perhaps because it has fewer twin-aisle aircraft, having retired its A330s and 767s during the pandemic. United did not react the same way, which may have given that airline a competitive leg up.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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