Delivery rates reflect on the commercial aviation silo |

There is a lot of anecdotal evidence about this issue. How about some hard data? We spent the past month building delivery models for Airbus, Boeing, and Embraer's current in-service programs, and this is what we found. From now on, we will be updating these models daily. As you go through the charts, note that they are not uniform. The process is still a work in progress, and the amount of data for each program varies. We hope to standardize this and potentially merge all these separate models into one, but that is still considerable work. The models focus on the period between the first flight and delivery, which we call delivery days. The first flight can only occur when the aircraft is complete, and delivery only occurs after customer acceptance. The number of days between these two events varies considerably. What are the reasons for this? That information isn't shared, but it is likely a combination of aircraft and cabin issues that must be resolved. The key metric is time - the more days, the more issues—the fewer days, the better for all, and it is a sign that quality control is optimized. Airbus Airbus has the most active programs, and we track them all. A220 [caption id="attachment_86768" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] We have noted several times that this program does not look close to reaching its target rate. The early spike was understandable as the program moved from Bombardier to Airbus. However, the program remains too spiky, perhaps reflecting its relatively small size and weak supply chain. The A220-100 does not appear to be a trendy model, though it offers considerable potential for use in military roles, similar to the Boeing P-8 and Wedgetail. But Airbus has not seemed to move on this opportunity, which seems odd when looking at Boeing's sales. The A220 program showed resilience during the pandemic as it had the fewest cancelations or delayed deliveries. It was the right-sized aircraft for the time. The chart shows that average delivery days are declining as the program matures. However, Airbus must accelerate deliveries as the program backlog is large. A320 Family [caption id="attachment_86769" align="aligncenter" width="535"] AirInsight[/caption] This is one of two monster programs, the other being the 737 MAX. These two programs account for the most deliveries in commercial aviation, making them the industry's bellwethers. Airbus offers many models, including the A319, A320, and A321. Within those are two engine options and the ACJs. As one might expect from a mature program, the process from first flight to delivery is relatively short. The table does not show it, but the A321 is now not only outselling the A320 but out-delivering it. Airbus is fortunate to have the most desired aircraft in commercial aviation among its offerings. The A321 does not have an effective competitor, providing Airbus with unusual pricing power in what would typically be a commodity market. Moreover, Airbus is using the former A380 FAL to build more A321s. It is yet another piece of good fortune to be able to turn that space into something the market needs. A330neo [caption id="attachment_86770" align="aligncenter" width="465"] AirInsight[/caption] This program was Airbus's best-selling twin-aisle in the A330ceo guise. However, sales and deliveries of the A330neo have been slower than planned. The targets have mainly been retiring A330ceos, but these aircraft remain popular and in service. Delta Air Lines was the one airline that saw the benefit of adding the A330neo to its A330ceo fleet. It now operates the largest A330neo fleet. The table shows that the -900 version is the most popular by far. Critics of the -800 often forget that this model is the basis of the future Airbus A330 MRTT. Any -800 sold to an airline is a win. However, the MRTT program's success only underscores the gap Airbus has allowed Boeing and its 737 to exploit. If Airbus can make the MRTT so successful, why not an A220 MPA, like the proposed A319 MPA or A320 M3A? Then there's the other key issue of how well the A330-900 competes with its primary competitor. [caption id="attachment_86781" align="aligncenter" width="554"] Skailark; AirInsight[/caption] The data suggest that Airbus does not have to discount the A330-900 much below a 787-9 price. The A330-900 is based on a mature program and is low-risk for operators. We expect Airbus to reduce the average delivery days as its supply chain settles. Here, we are especially looking at Rolls-Royce. If the program offered a version of the GE nx as used on the 787, it would likely see more active sales. A350 [caption id="attachment_86771" align="aligncenter" width="482"] AirInsight[/caption] This program is now Airbus' flagship. The base -900 model has proven popular and competes with the 787-9 in several markets. Singapore Airlines has a small ULR fleet for its non-stop Singapore-US flights. That experience allowed Airbus to develop a longer-range version of the -1000, which won an order for Qantas' Project Sunrise. The ongoing delays of the 777X are helping the -1000 model win sales, and the reaction from large 777-9 customers to the latest delay must rankle. We would not be surprised to see some customers switch to the -1000 to meet their capacity needs. The table shows how well Airbus has matured the program; average delivery days are well below what the A330neo achieves. And the A330neo is based on a mature program! Delivering an A350 in 66% of the time of an A330neo is excellent performance. Boeing Boeing's recent history has been complicated. The MAX program has experienced several disruptions that seem to occur with alarming regularity. This is shocking because the MAX is based on a model first assembled in the mid-60s. The 787 is a ground-breaking aircraft; it offered operators significantly improved fuel burn and range. On paper, the plane was a winner, and orders flooded in. Then came the problems, and this program also saw several delays and disruptions. Airbus saw more A330 sales after the first 787 delays than at any other time. This shows that the 787 is the right size the market wants, but business goes to the competitor without a steady delivery rate. MAX [caption id="attachment_86773" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] At one time, the 737 MAX was the fastest-selling aircraft. Boeing was flooded with orders. Based on the terrific 737NG, the MAX offered better fuel burn and more range. It was sure to be a winner, but then came two crashes and ongoing "quality escapes." Every time the program seemed to accelerate to its potential, another issue reared its head. The two charts above illustrate this acceleration and subsequent slowdown, which has negatively impacted Boeing's cash flow and caused chaos in the supply chain. The supply chain chaos is so significant that the impact has reached Airbus' production and deliveries, too. The only beneficiaries of this chaos are MRO shops winning work to repair and maintain 737NGs that would have been retired by now. Lessors have seen higher rates as operators extend leases. To Boeing's credit, its marketing and sales teams have successfully sold parked MAXs to new customers. Specifically, we have seen several Chinese NTUs move to India. Akasa and Air India Express have grown their fleets at rates that would, under normal circumstances, have been impossible. The current strike is wrecking planned deliveries. As the delivery chart shows, another hurdle follows every time program deliveries rise. This is astounding and frustrating, as this is Boeing's "bread and butter" program. These aircraft are priced like commodities. Even so, the strike ensures almost nothing gets delivered at the scheduled delivery volume. This is hurting Boeing and every program supplier. 787 [caption id="attachment_86774" align="aligncenter" width="464"] AirInsight[/caption] This program should be humming along. Comparing the average delivery days on the 787 with the A330neo and A350 paints the picture. Boeing is not operating optimally, and this problem needs fixing. The customers for long-range twin aisles are big airlines with global networks. They don't want delayed deliveries. Boeing's 787 has outsold the A350, but the A350 program is catching up because of Boeing's production "quality escapes." Production takes too long. These delays are due to supply chain challenges, like seats. However, Airbus has the same suppliers and seems to get the deliveries out the door faster. That means Airbus gets paid quicker, too. We estimate that Boeing has 34 787s parked and awaiting delivery. That is a lot of work in progress that needs to be funded. 777X We have no delivery data on this program, as nothing has been delivered yet. Boeing just announced another year's delay in the program. Considering that the 777X is a derivative of the wildly successful 777 program, these delays do not provide the confidence one might have expected. Disappointment is an understatement. Embraer E2 Program [caption id="attachment_86775" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] Embraer is a minnow in the company of two top-of-the-foodchain predators. This is not a comfortable place to be. Yet Embraer continues to operate and innovate. Its E2 program derives from its previous program, which is now generally called E1. Some E190s, being retired from airline service, now have a second life as freighters. E2s are typically replacing these. While Embraer has a lot of its supply chain in-house, it depends on outside vendors. Vertical integration has limits. Consequently, as the chart shows, delivery days are rising. We don't think this is because Embaer's program management is faltering. Instead, we believe this to be a function of the supply chain stress brought on by Boeing. Suppliers, when given the chance to deliver to Airbus or Boeing, would favor that over Embraer. In the end, volume is a key decision driver. The bigger customer gets more attention. With an average delivery day of 64, Embraer is around the Airbus standard. That is a good number. The concern here is the recent trend of rising from lower ranges. Going into 4Q24, we note the number is at 155, which does not send the signal customers want. Many factors could drive the rise in average delivery days. Whether internal or external, Embraer owns this and needs to fix it. Its primary competitor is the A220 program, and as we see, its average delivery day range stabilizes at much lower rates.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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