Daily Insight: Wednesday 8 May 2019: Future Technologies

News Both Boeing and Airbus have new narrow-body aircraft on the drawing board for the 2030 time frame, at which time new technologies are expected to provide another 10-15% in better fuel economy over today’s neo and MAX models. But technology comes at a price, and the current MAX and neo models are having difficulty sustaining high lease rates in a low fuel cost environment against their predecessor NG and ceo models, which on an operating plus capital cost basis remain quite competitive. To be incorporated into a new aircraft, technologies must be both efficient and cost effective. In a series of insights, we will examine some of the technologies we will likely see in the next generation of narrow-body aircraft. Our third topic is new technology engines. Analysis Each of the big three engine manufacturers plan to bid for the next generation of narrow-body aircraft. CFM and Pratt & Whitney have recently introduced the LEAP and GTF series of engines for the current generation of re-engined narrow-body aircraft, and Rolls Royce plans to join them with their UltraFan technology by 2030, in time for the next replacement cycle. Both the GTF and UltraFan will be geared turbofans, utilizing gearboxes to slow the speed of the fan relative to the core of the engine, and increasing the flow of bypass air. The LEAP, which does not offer a gear, relies on design with a slightly lower bypass ratio and more efficient hot section, leveraging ceramic matrix composites to control high temperatures, enabling higher thermal efficiency. While there is a lot of talk about electrification and hybrid engines, battery technology has not advanced far enough to provide a cost and weight-effective solution for large passenger jets. While we do expect electric engines to be introduced, they will begin with lighter weight trainers and small turboprops before becoming feasible for large commercial aircraft circa 2040. As a result, we can expect one more generation of turbofans powering narrow-body aircraft that will be introduced in the 2030 time frame. Insight We expect that the next generation of narrow-body aircraft will be powered with designs that are already in process today at each of the engine OEMs. With technological advancement in materials, manufacturing processes, and design moving rapidly, the question will not be how innovative a new engine can be, but whether that new engine can reliably be delivered into service and production quickly ramped-up to meet demand. Technology ramp-ups have proven difficult for the current generation of aircraft engines, as all three of the manufacturers have had difficulties when introducing their latest models. That could be expected, as he OEMs are pushing hard on technology to generate fuel efficiencies 15% better than the last generation of engines today, with an expected 10% additional expected over the next decade. But this is also something that the next generation of narrow-bodies cannot afford to have happen, especially with projected rates of 70-80 aircraft per month being produced by each manufacturer. At the same time, manufacturing technologies are changing, with additive manufacturing now utilized for uniquely designed parts that could not have been made using traditional metal cutting technology. Engineers are still adapting to the new possibilities additive manufacturing provides, and as that technology continues to evolve, more complex components will be possible. GE has led the way in innovation using additive manufacturing, and their new Catalyst turboprop, designed with additive manufacturing in mind, replacing 833 conventionally manufactured parts with 12 additive parts. The economics of new engines won’t focus only on fuel burn, but also maintenance cost, reliability, and manufacturing costs. Airlines don’t want engines that will be temperamental or difficult to maintain, and the OEMs don’t want to pay more for new technology engines that will power their new technology airplanes. The process of how engines are designed and built is also changing rapidly to adapt to advanced technologies. Gearboxes have proven effective in increasing the bypass ratio of commercial engines without the need to press thermal efficiency of the core to its limits. The GTF has a core with about 2,000 fewer blades that its competition, which should lead to lower maintenance costs, ceteris paribus. The new Rolls Royce Ultrafan will also utilize a geared architecture, and while CFM has not indicated whether a gear could be introduced for future LEAP variants, they also understand the technology well. Engine competition for the next generation of narrow-bodies will be a three player race, with RR joining PW and CFM for the competition. Having the right efficiency, combined with the right maturity levels to ramp-up production problem free, will likely decide the winner for the new programs from Boeing and Airbus.

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