The US Regional Airlines Association starts its 2022 conference tomorrow. It should be very interesting. RAA members are the most pressurized airlines in the market. In preparation for the event, we assembled some data that provides a look at the state of the industry. The model is based on the US DoT Form 41 P5.1 and the RAA stats produced by the DoT.
- Page 1
- The upper chart illustrates a slow decline in traffic numbers through 2018 and a bump in 2019. The pandemic hammered the industry, but 2021 saw a good recovery to ~81% recovery. The 2022 data is through June and appears to show an improvement over 2021 can be expected.
- The lower chart shows a steady consolidation; now we have a bifurcated market with two airline types.
- Page 2
- Using the menu on the left we can see that among major carriers, we have two players.
- Among the majors, we are down to eight airlines
- Among the regionals, there’s not much left.
- Page 3
- Here we list the Top Twenty airlines in the market. SkyWest’s dominance is apparent.
- Page 4
- Using the Form 41 P5.1 source we can see that costs per hour are rising again after a decline during the pandemic. Currently, the industry has operating costs of ~$2,2350 per flight hour.
- Page 5
- The only chart that is not using Form 41 is the load factor.
- The principal cost centers are listed.
- The lower two charts provide a sense of aircraft operations. The industry has steadily improved its fuel burn by switching to newer and larger aircraft.
- Page 6
- Using the menu on the left select an airline type and see fuel burn trends.
- Page 7
- A short list of airlines with sufficient data provide op costs per flight hour. We can see why aha! closed down.
Since regional aircraft frequently fly for the big airlines we are able to get a sense of operational performance by switching data sources. Looking at Form 41 P5.2 we offer the following model to see how the fleet has been performing.
This four-page model shows fleet performance.
- It is clear that Embraer’s E-175 started to dominate the market several years ago. (Click on a ball to see the trend over time).
- The CRJ550 does not appear to be performing as well as the CRJ700 or CRJ900.
- As costs rise, even Embraer will have to offer something more economically efficient. This applies to Mitsubishi even more.
Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.