Icelandair’s Airbus A321XLR order marks another 757 defection

As we reported earlier, Icelandair finalized an order for thirteen Airbus A321XLRs. The order makes Icelandair a new Airbus customer. The airline is also planning to lease four A321LRs. This news is of another former 757 customer moving to the A321neo platform. The table lists the Boeing 757 model orders and deliveries. The 757 had a relatively small production run by today's standards. But it turns out to have been a highly influential aircraft. Production ran over 23 years. The final delivery was in April 2005 - here we are, nearly another 25 years later, still talking about this aircraft. After production ceased, the 757 went on to do great things - developing new routes because of its excellent range and payload capabilities. The 757 was an amazing aircraft, likely more influential than Boeing could have hoped. But the 757 was expensive to build. Had Boeing foreseen the longevity of this aircraft, might they have looked for ways to change that and refine it further? Perhaps, but that is an academic question. Boeing preferred to grow the 737 into ever larger models, a lower-cost solution to fill the "757 gap." The 757 Gap The largest 757 customers were US-based: American, Delta, and United. Others like America West, Continental, and Northwest merged into the three. Close to 600 of the 757s were in US passenger airline use. The loss of the 757 meant airlines had to look for another solution in the 180-seat segment. This switch took a while, as retiring the 757 was no rush. The 757 was an airline "size 9" - it could do anything well. The following table sets the stage for showing the main 757 customers and what they did after retirement started. The chart shows that the main customers were in the United States. The green section shows Boeing MAX models ordered or operated, and the blue section shows Airbus A321 models ordered or operated. The last two columns show fleet growth in the segment and the percentage now in the hands of Airbus. The growth in the fleet demonstrates the growing importance of the middle of the market (MoM) segment - one of our favorite themes. Notice the amount of business Airbus acquired post the 757 in the Airbus share column. This used to be exclusively Boeing turf. But as we can see, the larger MAX models have not attracted as much favor. The MAX 10 seems to be off to a great start in closing the gap. But that model has yet to be certified. The MAX 10 delay boosts A321neo demand. Even if we note that some airlines have smaller MoM fleets, the overall segment is growing fast. For the June 2023 orders and deliveries, Airbus shows 50% of its deliveries are A321neos. The following table demonstrates this rather well. Consider the situation at United Airlines - a company with the same DNA as Boeing and Pratt & Whitney. It, too, switched to the A321XLR as a 757 replacement even though it has a huge MAX 10 order book. The same thing happened at Icelandair - a 757-fan, if ever there was one. Icelandair is known for its 757 fleet. It, too, is a MAX customer but finds that model cannot perform the missions the 757 used to. Boeing insists it will not offer a 757 replacement and has been saying this for a long time. That is the choice they have made. The market has also made its choices in response. The market is telling Boeing its decision was wrong.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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