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The trend towards “right sizing” aircraft and “horses for courses” appears to be changing as we analyze the size of recent orders.  But this growth and up-sizing appears to be confined to the narrow-body market.

In 2019, for the first time, the A321 began to outsell the A320, providing growth from the 150-162 seat category to the 185-205 seat category, depending on configuration and pitch.  At the lower end of the market, new aircraft, particularly the A220 and to a lesser degree the E195-E2, are taking market from the 737-7 and A319neo, neither of which has sold very well.  Regionals, while scope constrained in the US, are continuing to grow in size internationally with the E190-E2, E195-E2, and A220-100 replacing older models.

The trend towards “right sizing” aircraft and “horses for courses” appears to be changing as we analyze the size of recent orders.  But this growth and up-sizing appears to be confined to the narrow-body market.

In 2019, for the first time, the A321 began to outsell the A320, providing growth from the 150-162 seat category to the 185-205 seat category, depending on configuration and pitch.  At the lower end of the market, new aircraft, particularly the A220 and to a lesser degree the E195-E2, are taking market from the 737-7 and A319neo, neither of which has sold very well.  Regionals, while scope constrained in the US, are continuing to grow in size internationally with the E190-E2, E195-E2, and A220-100 replacing older models.

But in the wide-body size, the ultra-large four-engined aircraft have been replaced by smaller more efficient twins, particularly the 787 and A350.  These aircraft offer similar seat-mile economics with much less risk, since their fixed costs and aircraft mile costs, are lower than the A380 and 747-8, both of which are essentially now out of production (albeit the 747-8 line remains open for Air Force One replacements.)

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