The hopeful news that the quarantine in Wuhan is ending, combined with the fact the continued reduction in seats in NorthEast Asia has reached a nadir, is good news for both the crisis and our industry.  If we assume that the two-month quarantine process in Wuhan will work similarly in the rest of the world, we could see an end to the crisis by the middle of May in Europe and as early as late April some parts of the United States. But there are, of course, no guarantees.

Even if the crisis ends by Mayday, that doesn’t translate into an immediate re-start of building aircraft at normal production rates, as the timing of the global supply chain will vary by location and the impacts that the work stoppage has had on each company in the supply chain. With nearly a million parts on an aircraft, all it takes is one not being available to stop a production line cold.

 


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