January Transactions

The year has gotten off to a slow start, and that comes after a slower 2018 compared to 2017. It looks like a slowdown is well on its way. As the chart shows the decrease is across the board. This would not be a concern if one were focusing on January alone. But given the numbers we saw all through 2018, with a slowing as the year progressed, a slow January compared to previous years and the same month is a concern. Next the single-aisle market. The aberration of the Virgin America transfer to Alaska last year stands out. But, more importantly, look at the 2019 numbers. Combining numbers for the -800 and MAX8 or the A320ceo and A320neo show just how slow January was. Bear in mind these new programs struggle for engine deliveries, so perhaps that is what is at play here. The A220 program had nothing in January. Same for Embraer. Now for the twin-aisle segment with some bright spots. The A330 program is transition so we expect some slowdown. The A330neo program should see some better numbers as the year progresses. The A350 program is doing better ass on expects with maturing of the FAL. Boeing's 767 program goes on, what does not show here is the delivery of several tankers. (Same for the A330 program) The 777 program is running slowly as it also starts to transition. But look at the 787 program - a big slowdown. Next the regional segment. For Bombardier, the CRJ700 is the bright spot, with several deals going through at SkyWest. We have heard from the OEM that the CRJ700 was due to see rising interest because for several operators jumping from a 50-seater to a 78-seater could be too much, hence the interest in an interim size. The CRJ700 market might be worth a watch. As United negotiates with its pilots and runs into scope problems, this means the entire segment needs attention. What happens at United will signal to American and Delta. And what happens at these carriers will signal to the entire regional market worldwide. Embraer had a slow start to the year and Sukhoi makes slow progress. In summary, this is how the market has performed through January for the past three years. Transactions were down over 60% in 2019 compared to last year.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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