Here’s the updated model. Subscribers have access to the 14-page model.
Page 2 provides a better sense of the recovery that isn’t apparent on page 1. The combination of a traffic spike, fuel price shock, and labor shortages provide airlines with challenges. The obvious solution for most operators is to upgauge where possible – use the crews you have, and move the most people possible for a given fuel burn.
But not every airline has that flexibility. The cocktail of challenges may last for a while yet. Fuel prices may ameliorate some, but labor shortages are going to stay. Monthly transactions show MAXs going out as fast as Boeing can deliver them – MAX deliveries are now ahead of A320neo YTD. Airlines clearly are opting for new aircraft that offer the best fuel burn and lowest MRO.
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Start My Test Flight →In other news, YTD Aeroflot has re-registered (um, stolen) 157 aircraft. Commercial aviation is messy right now as it faces challenges and unusual pressures.
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