Here’s the updated model. Subscribers have access to the 14-page model.

Page 2 provides a better sense of the recovery that isn’t apparent on page 1.  The combination of a traffic spike, fuel price shock, and labor shortages provide airlines with challenges. The obvious solution for most operators is to upgauge where possible – use the crews you have, and move the most people possible for a given fuel burn. 

But not every airline has that flexibility.  The cocktail of challenges may last for a while yet.  Fuel prices may ameliorate some, but labor shortages are going to stay.  Monthly transactions show MAXs going out as fast as Boeing can deliver them – MAX deliveries are now ahead of A320neo YTD.  Airlines clearly are opting for new aircraft that offer the best fuel burn and lowest MRO. 

In other news, YTD Aeroflot has re-registered (um, stolen) 157 aircraft.  Commercial aviation is messy right now as it faces challenges and unusual pressures.

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Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.

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