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March 4, 2024
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Boeing’s MAX family is likely to get a new member soon, the MAX10x.  The picture below was shown at ISTAT Americas.  This model will slot above the current MAX9, with 12 more seats.

The 737 is a remarkable aircraft.  It has seen an amazing number of variants over the past 50 years.  A half century and still getting upgrades and development!  A unique aircraft.

How does MAX compare to the NG program? The next chart lays out orders to date.  The column represents apportioning the 22% unknown MAX orders into known models as a guide.

From NG to MAX we can see airlines and leasing firms are moving upmarket.  The -900 (900 & 900ER) is 8% of NG orders but looks like being closer to 18% on MAX. That is a big jump.  The -800 accounts for 74% of the NG orders, but looks like being 80% of the MAX orders.  When the MAX10x goes on sale, it will be interesting to see how much of the 22% unknown move to that model.  Or the other models for that matter. United made its interest in the MAX10X clear at ISTAT.

The MAX7 is going to be quite different from the -700.  However, even as the MAX7 grows in capacity, it remains the least ordered MAX model.  There 55 known MAX orders and apportioning the unknowns takes this to 71.  By comparison, Airbus has only sold 55 A319neos compared to 5,063 A320neo family orders, which is just over 1%.  Which means the approximate 2% at Boeing is on track.  But it is clear the with 14% of NGs ordered being -700s, the market has moved away from the smallest MAX model.  Airbus has seen similar upsizing moves from its A320 to the A321.

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Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.

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