Premium – Boeing’s MAX 10X faces a steep slope

Boeing’s 737 MAX 10X is the latest and largest variant of the 737 line.  Reactions to the aircraft range from Boeing’s confidence based on feedback “numerous airlines and interest from parts suppliers” to some muted concern among lessors.   Boeing is offering the MAX 10X to customers but it has not yet formally decided to go ahead with it.  Airbus

‘ John Leahy is predictably among those unimpressed by the 10X and said last week at ISTAT, “I hope they do it” and he was not cheer leading.

Mr. Leahy hopes Boeing does the 10X because he feels comfortable that the A321LR will see it off.  What does the data suggest?  We assembled the following table with as much data as we could find.  Understandably there is little information on the 10X.  Airbus does not release any A321LR sales as these are treated as A321neo sales.  We know Norwegian has converted 30 out 100 A321neo orders to A321LRs and ALC ordered 30 A321LRs (8 of which are going to Aer Lingus to replace 757s).  There is some thinking the last A321neo order (15 aircraft) from jetBlue will be A321LRs.

Airbus did share this with us: “All A321neos from 2018 will be the ‘Airbus Cabin “Flex” (“ACF”) incorporating: (a) the new door configuration (the latter feature allowing for up to 240 seats max pax capacity); (b) the physical capability to go to 97 tonnes MTOW; (c) the structural capability to carry underfloor a third ACT fuel tank (i.e. one more than today’s A321).