Premium #192 – WHY A C SERIES CANCELLATION IS NOT IN THE CARDS

The events of the last week, including an apparent leak by Airbus that Bombardier has been in discussions with it regarding cooperation and financial investment, which set off a frenzy of stock price jumps and falls, and speculation by some pundits that the C Series will be cancelled. We believe that is extremely unlikely, for a number of reasons.

1. The C Series has a performance and economic advantage over competitors

An all-new technology airplane should perform better than older designs, and the C Series does. Yes, the C Series has tough competition. But the reason it does, is that it was the catalyst that brought about the re-engining programs from competitors – who were forced to adapt their existing platforms to remain competitive.

The E-Jets from Embraer were only in service seven years when their re-engining program was announced. Why? Because the CS100 should have economics so superior that the aircraft couldn’t compete.  Ditto for the A320neo

family. The CS300 offers the economics of a larger aircraft in a “right sized” package for most of the markets in the world, and beats both the comparably sized A319ceo and 737-700 economically, and also should beat the A319neo and 737-7MAX, and is competitive with the larger A320neo and 737-8MAX in seat-mile costs. Why was the neo launched? It was launched because the threat from C Series forced the issue, and then this move subsequently forced Boeing to re-engine the 737 to match Airbus.