We have previously noted that the US represents roughly 70% of the world regional jet market. This ensures that the US market dictates how the industry moves. Even if China were to grow rapidly, it would possibly be decades before it matches the US influence in this segment. Embraer’s market forecast for the next 20 years indicates that 54% of future deliveries in the 70-90 seat segment will be in the US.
The focus on the US also means that the world regional jet market is impacted by the US scope clause limitation, crazy as that may be. Whereas regional airlines outside the US can benefit from next generation aircraft like the E175-E2 or even the MRJ, the market outside the US is just too small for these programs to gain any traction. Embraer has pushed its E175-E2 program back to wait for a possible scope relaxation. The future for the MRJ90 is unclear and the OEM is now apparently building their MRJ70 which will be scope compliant.