Boeing HQ
Today’s news items for Boeing center about the 777-9, with an additional cracked components found, and why United won’t buy the airplane. Cracks have been found on a fourth 777-9 test aircraft, reinforcing the seriousness of the issue with the already grounded test fleet. What is yet to be determined is the root cause of the problem.
The component problem could be a design flaw, such as a part being too thin to support loads, in which case the part would need a redesign. It could be a manufacturing flaw, in which case manufacturing processes in the supply chain would need adjustment, or it could be a material issue, as counterfeit Titanium is problematic without Russian supply being available. In any of the above, this will likely result in delays, and likely retrofits to the 40 or so aircraft that have already been built, albeit many of those lack engines and the linkage in question may not be attached. We have added another year of delays to our estimates for the 777-9 program.
United Airlines indicated that it won’t be ordering the aircraft, citing its size as not a good fit with their network. Just like the A380 failed to generate strong interest with US carriers, the 777-9 now appears to be headed in the same direction as the successor to the A380 as the world’s highest capacity passenger aircraft available. The market may be more limited than Boeing had initially hoped.
In other Boeing news, the fallout from the Starliner situation continues to generate speculation in the media. A key question is whether Boeing could walk away from the program, particularly with their rocket booster joint venture with Lockheed already for sale. With the ISS to be decommissioned by 2030, the clock is running for Boeing to complete its tasks promised to NASA for six crew missions.
The problem is that Boeing has already overspent its contract and not delivered, and at approximately $400 million per launch times six, Boeing stands to lose another $2.4 billion on the program. Given the issues with commercial aviation and cash issues, Boeing may not be able to afford to continue the Starliner program. A walkaway from the program would reverberate a negative message throughout the Boeing organization, just as new CEO Kelly Ortberg needs to change the culture.
Ryanair is estimating that it will receive 20-25 aircraft before the 3rd Quarter 2025, instead of a planned 29. The carrier is continuing to publicly complain about Boeing constraining its growth and route network expansion. Given that a strike by the IAM looks quite likely, as the parties appear to remain far apart, we are forecasting the lower side of that estimate as the most likely outcome, with a possibility for fewer deliveries. Boeing still has fundamental problems on the shop floor, and needs to streamline and ensure quality through new procedures and processes on the final assembly line. Until those processes change, it is unlikely that Boeing can resume production to its targeted 38 units per month.
With the supply chain continuing to produce and deliver parts in accordance with Boeing forecasts, inventories are building, but are unsustainable long-term. We believe a de-stocking at Boeing may occur, cutting back some supply chain requisition rates in 2025.
Finally, a 737 MAX customer, LOT Polish Airlines, is joining the families of the victims in objecting to the Boeing – Department of Justice felony plea deal. The net effect of that agreement will be to prevent transparency into what really occurred during the design of the MAX, and whether other potential safety issues might later emerge.
Links to today’s key news follow:
- Widespread engine attachment fitting cracks halt 777-9 flying – Aviation Week
- United executive explains why the airline hasn’t bought Boeing’s newest wide-body plane – Business Insider
- Boeing might not get Starliner working before the space station is destroyed – Futurism
- What NASA’s reliance on SpaceX means for Boeing – BNN Bloomberg
- Ryanair to receive 20-25 B737 MAX instead of 29 by 3Q 25 – ch-aviation
- Poland’s LOT objects to Boeing-DOJ MAX plea deal – ch-aviation
