The MAX overhang

It appears that the MAX grounding is working towards a resolution.  The meeting of international regulators on May 23^rd will review what the various working groups and committees have found and try to find common ground for a reinstatement decision.  There are rumors that the FAA may decide to go it alone and approve operations again even if some other countries disagree.  It seems implausible they could be the only agency to do so.

News from COPA in Panama suggests they expect to fly their MAXs in July.  Maybe the decision will be sooner than some think.  But until we hear from each agency, it is difficult to predict the future.  Unfortunately, politics also can enter into the process.  Canada, we suspect, will want to conduct its own certification process.  While there is no obvious connection, Canada still seethes over the ITC case that essentially drove Bombardier

out of the commercial aerospace business.  Boeing Karma has boomeranged

China was the first country to ground the MAX. Everything with China has to do with politics, so the current US/China trade spat does not help Boeing at all.  We would not be surprised to see China demand to do its own certification of the MAX.  This would be a superb opportunity for that agency to flex its muscles after leading the MAX grounding effort.  It is also a great opportunity to send a message to the White House.  It is always about power with China.