We are using Friday data for this because this is the most recent information we have on flight numbers for US domestic service.  There has been a distinct swing down from the upward trend we have been seeing for the past few weeks.

The forecast rules are the same for both charts: 95% CI and looking out 180 days.

The most recent data show that numbers are down and descending.  Flights, though, are are not.  Two weeks ago we were looking at ~60 /flight.  As of Friday we were at 48.  Sunday, June 5 was the peak at 65/flight and matched the traffic level before the holiday weekend. The forecast for passengers/flight now looks to be 48/flight.  Currently, the looks weaker by ~20%.  That is a big drop from a wobbly trend.  Like everyone, we look forward to better news.

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