We are using Friday data for this update because this is the most recent information we have on flight numbers for US domestic service. There has been a distinct swing down from the upward trend we have been seeing for the past few weeks.
The forecast rules are the same for both charts: 95% CI and looking out 180 days.
The most recent data show that passenger numbers are down and descending. Flights, though, are are not. Two weeks ago we were looking at ~60 passengers/flight. As of Friday we were at 48. Sunday, June 5 was the peak at 65/flight and matched the traffic level before the holiday weekend. The forecast for passengers/flight now looks to be 48/flight. Currently, the air travel recovery looks weaker by ~20%. That is a big drop from a wobbly trend. Like everyone, we look forward to better news.