The US domestic airline market is getting tougher for new entrants as the Big Four grow ever larger. In defining the Big Four we combined appropriate pre-merger fleets for the period to allow for a fair comparison. The growth for two of the Big Four spikes in an interesting way. It appears the oligopoly is currently out of balance and the question is how long can this go on? Also, a secondary question – how hard is it for a new entrant (like Moxy) in this market?
Starting with national domestic market share, note the Big Four are getting bigger. The top part of each column is “Other” and it shrank to a steady 7%. Recent startups like JetBlue have stayed with the same market share. Alaska grew its market share by buying Virgin America. Even Southwest bought market share via AirTran.
Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.
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