With about a week to go until month end, new deliveries have taken a severe dip. Take a look at this table.
With about 73% of the month done, deliveries are way down, about 50% lower than expected.
Since the duopoly accounts for over 90% of the market, that’s where we need to focus. Both OEMs are showing sharply lower deliveries. Single aisles are the biggest segment; the following table highlights the numbers for key models.
The eye-popper is the A321neo, out-delivering the A320neo by 1.4:1 and the MAX9 by 3.7:1. We discussed this issue earlier.
However, this still does not explain August’s amazing decline in delivery volume. Please drop a comment if you have any thoughts on this.
We got a few private replies.
- Vacations – which makes sense for Europe (Airbus) but not for Boeing
- Airbus’ struggling/juggling GTF deliveries – maybe, but P&W is delivering faster than taking back repairs
- Also, there seems to be a general slowdown after the summer
- Rework at Boeing – the Spirit stabilizer issue
All these make sense but the dropoff is rather alarming. We highlighted August periods. For 2023 to match pervious years we need to see 20+ deliveries from Airbus and Boeng over eight days. Can you see that level? We don’t.
Boeing is finding new operators for parked China MAXs and Airbus placed the Aeroflot orders quickly at Turkish and Air India.
The market is seeing booming traffic and airlines want new aircraft ASAP, something seems off.
Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.