A Commercial Aviation Consultancy

2014-09-22_15-20-06

At the ISTAT conference in Istanbul, Turkish Airlines CEO Dr. Temel Kotil shared an interesting view on how the airline selects an aircraft for a certain route: For to 4-5 hour segments, a single aisle aircraft has a lower cost per average seat mile, while on longer routes, a twin aisle aircraft is more effective.

Having Europe, Middle East (including parts of China and India) and Africa within 3,000NM distance, Turkish Airlines is able to effectively reach many of these destinations with a single aisle aircraft.  Moreover the airline tries to fully exploit an aircraft’s range.

But in order to avoid spillage and retain highest revenue level s, the airline departs from this theory when necessary.  For example, Dr. Kotil stated that on the route Istanbul-Kinshasa, he prefers to deploy a 737-900 than and A330 for the seven hour flight. On this route with the 737-900 Turkish makes… Continue reading

The most brutal area of commercial aerospace is the single aisle market. Competition between Airbus and Boeing is fierce.  So fierce that new entrants rightly fear the news these giants are going to increase production.  The pool may be growing bigger, but it is also getting tougher to enter as the two OEMs swamp the market with aircraft.  Between them, Airbus and Boeing are heading into a situation that sees them delivering over 100 single aisle aircraft every month.

Take a look at the situation from another angle.  Airbus and Boeing are doing very well selling single aisle aircraft.  The chart illustrates the state of play.  Even at ~100 aircraft deliveries per month, with no new orders, the two OEMs have over five years of production in backlog. (Note how much better Airbus is doing in the largest size. )

2014-09-18_9-03-18Now consider this. … Continue reading

Overnight two deals announced by Republic Airways appear complex.

Embraer:

  • Lost a deal with Flybe in the UK for 20 E-175s and defers delivery on four. Flybe and Embraer agreed to reduce an outstanding deal for 24 E175s on order by 20 aircraft.
  • Won a deal for 50 E-175s at Republic (for United Express) – transferring the Flybe order plus more. United anticipates deliveries will begin in July 2015 and continue through the summer of 2017. The new aircraft will replace large turboprop airplanes and older, less-efficient aircraft and are in addition to 70 E-175s whose deliveries began this year for other carriers to operate as United Express.
  • Embraer’s backlog is net +30.

Bombardier:

  • Flybe gets 24 Q400s, leased from Republic. So this is not a new order for Bombardier.
  • The deal is a sublease and will “supplant 21 of the same aircraft type whose lease periods are ending over… Continue reading

imagesQatari television station Al Jazeera recently published an expose on the Boeing 787 that was quite negative.  The video is nearly an hour long and leaves an uneducated viewer with the impression that 787s will soon be falling out of the sky, a la Chicken Little.  Our reaction is no, that is unlikely to happen.

We are keen followers of this industry; this is where we do business.  Finding fault and criticizing is easy.  And when this is done by people with little industry knowledge, it’s mostly inaccurate.  Traditional media has an old SOP – “if it bleeds, it leads”.  And the Al Jazeera report is tabloid-style journalism masquerading as an in-depth analysis.

Unlike Al Jazeera, we will try to be fair and balanced:

  • Boeing’s 787 program did not cover the company in glory.  It is clearly the most fumbled project in the… Continue reading

Just three days ago a report surfaced that Bombardier’s plans for a Russian production facility are being delayed.  Now it seems that a year delay might be a fading dream.

This morning another report from Russia tells a new story.  If the Russian Deputy Prime Minister is to be taken seriously, Bombardier’s plans might get delayed a lot longer than one year.

The Il-114 is a 64-seater turboprop.  It has modern engines from PWC (similar to those on the ATR) and Rockwell Collins gear on the flight deck.  While the aircraft looks to be a reasonable project, only 20 were built.

The Il-114 may be a “good enough” replacement for the Q400 in the Russian market.  Had the Il-114 been a much better aircraft it would have sold more than 20.  But given the turmoil in Russia’s economy and the downstream impact on… Continue reading

[UPDATE - We contacted the airline and they advise us as follows: "At this time there is no substitute for the B757 on the market or in sight at Boeing or Airbus.  Present plans estimate the  B757 with Icelandair to 2025.  Icelandair is planning the MAX for the European routes and US flights to the east coast and Canadian destinations on the east side of Canada.  MAX will be serving the majority of the Icelandair network."]

Icelandair is a smallish airline based in the north Atlantic, about halfway between North America and Europe.  Its location allows the airline to cherry pick routes and carve out a nice business.  It has a fleet that includes an 757-300 and many 757-200s. Take a look at the route map to get a feel for their business.  One can see why the 757 is the perfect aircraft… Continue reading

1 2 3 106

Post Updates

Receive E-Mail Notification of New Posts

Browse

Archives