A Commercial Aviation Consultancy

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As we get ready for the upcoming Paris show, both the big duopolies are doing their pre-show briefings. Typically the briefings focus on impending orders and what’s coming in terms of product innovation. The future is always more exciting, even if it doesn’t always pan out. But orders for future products do result, eventually, into deliveries, the more realistic metric of what is actually coming out of production line and entering service.

Orders are not unimportant, as they measure the success of programs, and set expectations around the industry for the success, or lack thereof, of an aircraft program. In the 1990s, Boeing won the majority of the orders between the two competitors, and led in deliveries from 1989-2002. Since then Airbus won the orders battle in most years, and was winning the delivery battle through 2011. But Boeing has out-delivered Airbus in recent years, increasing its narrow-body production rate – so winning the order battle doesn’t always mean you win the production battle in the short-term.

With that said, let’s take a look at what has actually transpired since the year 1974, examining actual aircraft deliveries. The following charts split deliveries into single-aisle and twin-aisle categories.

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2015-05-21_7-51-24Embraer and Azul Linhas Aéreas Brasileiras reached a final agreement for 30 firm orders for E195-E2s. The contract, announced as an LOI at the 2014 Farnborough Airshow includes an additional 20 purchase rights for the same model, bringing the total potential order to 50 E195-E2s.

The contract for the aircraft is estimated at $3.2bn, at Embraer’s current list prices, if all purchase rights are converted to firm orders. The firm orders will be included in Embraer’s 2015 second-quarter backlog. The first delivery is scheduled for the second quarter of 2020.

Azul has a total of 82 E-Jets in service and another six E195s on order. It operates the largest fleet of E195s in the world. With this order, the E-Jets E2 backlog reaches 242 firm orders, plus 348 options and purchase rights.

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The Big 3 US carriers began a war of words in March, with a complaint that the Gulf carriers were being unfairly subsidized and asking that Open Skies authorities be revoked.  Etihad, one of the Big 3 Gulf carriers, has responded today, releasing a study it commissioned.  That study, conducted by the London-based Risk Advisory Group, quantified government and court-sanctioned benefits and concessions received by the three largest US carriers (Delta, United and American) valued at $71,48 billion.  A summary of that study can be found here (Risk Advisory Report – US Carriers (May 14, 2015) final).

James Callahan, General Counsel and Secretary of Etihad, stated “We simply wish to highlight the fact that US carriers have been benefitting and continue to benefit from a highly favorable legal regime, such as bankruptcy protection and pension guarantees, exemptions from certain taxes, and various other benefits. … Continue reading

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