A Commercial Aviation Consultancy

Bombardier

Saying that if Airbus can sell to Iran, Bombardier should  be as well, the Canadian government announced that it plans to lift its sanctions on Iran.   The process of lifting the sanctions and allowing Iran to order from Bombardier looks rather hurried.

This is fortunate for Bombardier since the firm could win some business in Iran, for which discussion are already underway with Iran Air.  Iranian airlines have talked up their fleet shopping lists to 500 aircraft.  That is enough to allow every OEM to get a good slice of the cake.  Moreover, given existing backlogs and scarce delivery positions, Iran has to buy from everyone to get new aircraft in a reasonably short time frame.

As we have written a number of times last year, Iran is the big news in 2016 with respect to orders.  However even as the Iran fleet… Continue reading

During its earnings call this week, Alaska’s CFO spoke of interest in 30 regional jets with 76 seats.  These are to be deployed by Horizon Air as it returns 15 Bombardier Q400s on lease.   Horizon has long been a Bombardier customer.  Indeed, even as the airline returns some Q400s, its fleet of the aircraft are expected to grow.  Horizon is a key Bombardier customer. Continue reading

This order was telegraphed a week ago. Even as late as yesterday morning we were hearing from competitors that the race was still on. But United selected Boeing late Thursday when it reported its fourth quarter numbers.   The announcement was terse “Today, UAL announced it reached an agreement to acquire 40 new Boeing 737-700 aircraft which will enter the fleet beginning in mid-2017, replacing a portion of the capacity currently operated by regional partners.”

What does this mean for the small duopoly that fought long and hard for this deal? And are there other implications?

The Selection

  • Bombardier – the miss hurts this company more than any of the competitors for the order. Bombardier had had put in every effort to be a winner with its new C Series. The aircraft impressed some at the airline. But apparently not enough of the key decision-makers were won over. Bombardier… Continue reading

Reports over the weekend suggest Iran is ready to sign for deals with Airbus for up to 114 aircraft.  We have been looking at the Iranian market frequently (Aug 2015, Nov 2015, Dec 2015).

As we suggested in earlier stories, the A340 offers Iran the fastest way to achieve long haul capacity.  The used market is soft for this aircraft. More crucially the issue that made the A340 less popular is its its fuel burn.  And currently that issue is much less of a problem as fuel prices decline sharply.  The following link shows why the A340 is looking so attractive for the Iranians.

The A320 will serve Iran well, just as it does other airlines and markets.  The challenge here is for Airbus to be able to move new aircraft into Iran from its tight backlog.  Of course, if… Continue reading

Embraer orders and deliveries were just announced for 2015 delivery.  Embraer ended the year delivering 101 commercial aircraft and 120 business jets (82 light and 38 large business jets). The total 221 aircraft is the highest volume of deliveries in the last five years.  Embraer’s success of the business jet market continues, but we will focus on the regional jet market in this post.  On December 31 Embraer’s order backlog reached $22.5Bn.  The regional jet backlog stands at 513 aircraft, with a positive book-to-bill ratio of 1.5 for 2015.

Let’s look at the numbers. Continue reading

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