A Commercial Aviation Consultancy

Bombardier

Last year the first Airbus Market Survey in Latin America provided valuable insights on how airline executives in the region perceive market evolutions and fleet requirements.  Airbus has just launched their 2014 Airbus Market Survey in Latin America.

In the 2013 results Airbus discovered that:

  • Intra-regional connections was the top long term network development opportunity
  • The market has a “very optimistic near-term outlook”
  • Criteria for new aircraft is driven by fuel burn, revenue generation ability and fleet rationalization
  • Airlines need to see savings of 15% to transition to same generation and 25% to transition to next generation
  • Best age to replace aircraft is between 8-12 years or a 15-20% cost improvement

With that backdrop, let’s look at this market.  The table shows the regional fleet earlier this year.  Over 77% of the fleet is narrow body (single aisle).  This is why the intra-regional market shows up… Continue reading

To the beat of traditional Japanese taiko drummers, Mitsubishi rolled in their new MRJ. About 3 1/2 years behind schedule, the aircraft apparently has been noted for high quality workmanship already.  Mitsubishi is building 78- and 92-seat versions  developed at a cost it estimates at $1.7bn. The company plans to conduct a first flight in June, with the larger model available first. Continue reading

A story out today might lead readers to think a CSeries order from Austrian is imminent.  Its not.

We contacted Austrian and we were told “I am pleased to confirm that we achieved a framework-agreement with our workers council, so now we can be optimistic about the future of Austrian Airlines – including  some thoughts on the fleet modernization. Currently there is neither a decision made regarding the model nor to the number of aircraft.”  Of course you would expect the airline to say this until things are official.

But we were advised by a contact within parent company Lufthansa “…there is nothing to really talk about; don’t know where the rumour originated because there are many things to be done first.”

The Bottom Line:  It could happen, but it isn’t there yet.  The competition between CSeries and E2Jets is still ongoing.

The CSeries has resumed flight testing, and flight test vehicle 4 has been commandeered by the marketing team to make visits to customers and prospects.  This week, FTV4 visited Republic Airways in Indianapolis, as shown in this video.  Republic was an early CSeries customer, ordering 40 aircraft in February 2010 and is their largest airline customer.

IMG_6119

The next day, the aircraft visited Dallas, the home base of potential customers American Airlines and Southwest.  While we don’t have details or specific insight into these marketing trips, it is a good sign that Bombardier is confident about the aircraft and now demonstrating it to potential customers.  These visits are the first of a worldwide tour expected for the CSeries.

It also appears that as flight testing has resumed, the pace has stepped up to two flights per day for some of the aircraft.  If that pace… Continue reading

Now that the flight test program is back flying we are tracking progress again. Although total hours appear to be just shy of 12% of target hours, we understand the program is getting credit for CIASTA hours. So ~12% of target flight hours is probably understated.

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