fuel efficiency
We frequently discuss the crucial issue of fuel burn in airline operations. The following chart reinforces the significant impact of fuel costs. The source data is the US DOT Form 41. Despite the many flaws in the US DOT datasets, it remains the most granular source to track US airlines. The US DOT also offers this interesting fuel cost report.
To the industry’s great fortune, fuel costs have dropped this year, which helps offset rising pilot costs. But history shows this is not something the industry should bank on. Rising fuel costs are always a crisis away.
Fuel Burn Across Generations
The chart above serves as a backdrop to what we want to share today. Because fuel burn is so crucial for the industry, we are making this model public. All our analyses are data-driven, and it is vital to (sometimes) share the data that underpins our work.
Today, our data model examines fuel burn improvements from previous-generation aircraft to the current state-of-the-art models. As you go through the model, there are gaps—for example, where there is no “new” model replacing a previous generation. Or where an airline only flies one or the other.
Use the menus across the top of the pages to drive the model—the blue arrows on pages one and two indicate the direction of optimal performance.
The grounding causes the spike in the MAX 8 numbers, and 2020 is best ignored for this model. What is clear, though, is that post grounding, the MAX numbers are great again. Using ASM in the metric ensures an apples-to-apples comparison. This is important when you see the 737NG numbers improve as US operators added seats.
- Page one – offers a “big picture” look. Using the menus, you can select a specific aircraft type (Description) and even select multiple models. It is insightful to see the curves within an airline, for example.
- Page two shows the improvements from one generation to the next. Comparing the A321 to the A321neo reveals impressive numbers. This is a key reason airlines are scrambling for the A321neo, and the Spirit’s A321neos will be snapped up in short order.
- Page three allows you to compare models regardless of generation. The default chart compares the 757-200 with the A321neo. (Yes, this is a favorite) Notice that older aircraft uniformly experience a decline in fuel burn efficiency.
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