We’ve had to wait a while, but now the DoT is reporting numbers (through 3Q21) and includes Breeze Airways. To do an airline start-up in the current environment, what with the pandemic and a global air travel collapse.  It took some, well, moxie.  David Neeleman’s team clearly has that.

As is our modus, we use models to inform our analysis. So here’s a model of the DB1B ticket database.  All the big US airlines are listed along with Breeze, but we exclude the regionals. Remember when you click the double-headed arrow at the bottom right of the model, it resizes for your monitor.

The model has two pages:

  • Page 1 – Select a US state to see that market. There are four charts that provide a summary by traffic, average stage length, average fare, and average fare per mile.
  • Page 2 – Select an airline (MX is Breeze) and watch the three charts change. Readers can also drive the analysis deeper by selecting, say a tile in the top chart, to see the other two charts change.  For example, if you select a state the two bottom charts will show is the average fare and average fare/mile are above, equal to, or below the airline’s total average. 

To get a peek at Breeze use page 2 and select MX.  Only the 3Q21 is reported, and we can see which states are focus markets at this early stage.  As the Breeze passenger volume indicates, we don’t think a full quarter’s worth of flights is reported. Then go through each state (click each tile)  and see how Breeze is driving its traffic by pricing – aggressively or not. 

For example, select Rhode Island and note Breeze’s average fare is higher than the airline’s overall average as is its average fare/mile.  Rhode Island offers Breeze pricing power because other airlines, perhaps, are not focusing on the same city pairs that Breeze offers.  Even it is a small state, finding markets like this is what will make Breeze successful. It also helps that Breeze has aircraft that offer low seat-mile costs. As their fleet grows, we expect this data model to report more markets Breeze has found that offer pricing nuggets.

Given the airline’s focus on being “Nice”, once travelers realize the experience is pleasant they will repeat the experience.  We have heard anecdotal reports like this about the Breeze experience.  When the Breeze team took delivery of their first A220 in Mobile, all the speakers were at pains to mention this focus on being nice.  Subscribers can watch these here.

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Addison Schonland
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Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.

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