eleves making planes
We are still watching the elves at work, at least through yesterday. Nobody’s working today, as far as we can tell. Here’s an update from last night.
Airbus: The spike in delivery days was caused by the much-delayed A350-1000 delivery to Air Caraibes Atlantique (767 days). From December through the 24th, Airbus averaged 29 delivery days per aircraft, consistent with its YTD rate.Â
Boeing: The spike was a 787 for Vietnam Airlines at 1,348 delivery days. December deliveries averaged 145 delivery days compared to the YTD 435. That is a significant improvement, even though it was an awful year. Delivery days can be expected to improve steadily as “old stock” is moved to original or replacement customers—the key Boeing metric to watch is delivery rate.
The chart illustrates Boeing’s monthly delivery rate from December 24 to 2024. Based on current data, we believe that Boeing has recovered from its low point and is accelerating.
COMAC: They deliver two models: a regional jet and a single-aisle. The former, the C909, is delivered more frequently but at an unpredictable rate. Even after all these years, the program does not have a rhythm. The latter, the C919, shows a far more mature rhythm—its delivery days mimic those at Airbus and Boeing. But the delivery rate is slow.Â
EMBRAER: This OEM is having an excellent year. However, their chart above lacks the delivery day rate because, for some unknown and mysterious reason, they don’t publish the first flight date. For example, why does every delivery to Porter Airlines have a first flight date? Not so much for the others. Requests to explain this are ignored and now attract the wrong kind of attention.Â
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