Africa’s empty airspace conundrum

Thirty-three countries in Africa are signatories to the agreement to implement the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) since January 2018. But the agreement appears to exist on paper rather than having been implemented as nations are still not fully opening their airspace for a single air travel market in the continent. Africa’s empty airspace conundrum. According to the International Civil Aviation (ICAO) Aviation Infrastructure for Africa Gap Analysis 2019, direct traffic from the SAATM states are mainly to Europe and intra-Africa. Traffic from SAATM to other regions is carried mainly through connecting flights. Direct flights are mostly absent. ICAO, IATA study analysis According to the study, twelve African states do not have international flights served by African carriers. Fifteen states only have international flights served by African carriers for intra-Africa routes. Eleven states have more than twenty international destinations served by African carriers. Seven states have more than sixty international destinations and four states have more international destinations outside Africa than within the continent. The study further states that 35 African States have less than twenty international flights per day while the top five states have over 100 international flights daily. Thirty percent of international passengers from Africa traveled through connecting flights and even 22 percent of international traffic between the African States were connecting flights. As over 93 percent of passengers who travel between Accra and Kinshasa took a connecting flight, the potential to offer more direct air services between the two cities was further evaluated. Six out of the top ten origins and destination traffic with no direct flights are to/from Cape Town and most of this traffic is connected through Johannesburg. This gives the potential to offer more direct air services between these cities. Over forty African states have less than two million international passengers a year, while the top state with the most international passenger numbers (South Africa) far outstripped most of the other states with almost twenty million passengers. According to ICAO, top states account for over ninety percent of the total number of a fleet of Africa. It confirms that the capacity of most African countries is very small, with average load factors of African airlines continuously lower than the world's average in the past seven years and below seventy percent. The exception was 2017 when the world average load factor increased. All African states are facing load factors below the world average, indicating the need to optimize the capacity utilization for airlines in the region. ICAO recently advised countries on how Africa can harvest future growth potential. Air Cote d'Ivoire Airbus A320neo (Airbus) Two percent of the global passenger market The International Air Transport Association (IATA), which recently announced international and domestic travel data for July, said Africa represents just under two percent of the total global passenger market. That's too small to affect the overall global performance of this sector of the commercial air transport industry. The association attributes the low travel demand to extensive government-imposed travel restrictions that continue to delay recovery in international markets. This revelation sets the tone for the analysis on why Africa, with its huge population including market size, is under-performing in the area of aviation, and how intra-Africa air connectivity has been a herculean task including the dominance of the continent’s market by top European, Gulf, and American carriers. African governments tend to view air transport as a luxury and hence as an easy target for increased taxation, high user fees, and subsidies to failing national carriers rather than shifting to liberalization and infrastructure development to encourage investment from the more agile private sector. Growth propelled from bottom Not a few believe that growth in African air travel demand will come from the bottom end of the market, primarily the newly empowered middle class who have increased disposable income. The prototypical modern African consumer is young, globalized, and comfortable with e-commerce. Former Chief Operating Officer of African World Airlines (AWA), Sean Mendis, said that most airlines in Africa, especially in the West, Central, and South Africa, have a precarious existence because of many factors. These, include the inability to access funds. Poor connectivity Kinshasa, the capital of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, is one of the biggest cities in Africa, with an estimated population larger than London. But if a traveler wants to go from there to Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial capital and Africa’s largest metropolis, it’s impossible to fly nonstop. Roughly 1,100 miles separate the two megacities—about the same distance as New York to Minneapolis. But there are no direct flights. Instead, a traveler will need to change planes at least once and pay a minimum of $1.400. There’s a good chance the journey will take well more than twelve hours. Across Africa, the situation is similar. Commercial flights are infrequent, expensive, and circuitous. To get from one country to another, African travelers may have to go thousands of miles out of their way and transfer through the Middle East or Europe. Hence Africa’s empty airspace conundrum. The continent is home to roughly twelve percent of the world’s population and will be responsible for most of the global population growth over the next three decades. But it accounts for just two percent of the world’s air travel market. The flights that do exist are often more expensive than routes of similar duration elsewhere in the world. Protectionism Why is it so difficult to fly around Africa? Blame a combination of protectionist legal barriers and regulatory hurdles, mixed with inadequate infrastructure, high taxes, and stubborn nationalism. Airlines trying to launch a new route between African nations need to first secure permission from both countries, which can be a lengthy and expensive prospect that may or may not involve significant bribes. Forty-four African nations signed on to the 1999 agreement promising to promote competitive markets and remove regulatory barriers. But to date, few have actually implemented the plan, known as the Yamoussoukro Decision (named after the Côte d'Ivoire capital in which it was reached). Countries across the continent have displayed protectionist tendencies to limit others’ access to their own airspace. Those instincts began a generation ago, when newly independent nations sought to assert themselves by creating national airlines, and continue today. Yet even as flag carriers across the continent edge towards financial ruin, additional countries, including Uganda and Nigeria, are eyeing creating national airlines of their own, in what University of Nairobi Professor Evaristus Irandu called a “costly show of patriotism.”

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