In 2Q17 there were 1,365 A319s in the market as the table lists. Only about 1% were parked. The fleet is also rather young.
We do know that Airbus favors the C Series over its slow-selling A319. Airbus cannot play any role in pitching its A319 customers to consider the CS300 until the deal with Bombardier is approved, perhaps by next summer.
There is a large market for A319s for the Airbus/Bombardier partnership to consider. The final outcome of the US government case on the Bombardier C Series “dumping” has yet to be finalized. What do opportunities look like?
The US market will remain constrained until the ITC case and its probable appeals are done. That represents about 24% of the market. So about three-quarters of the market is wide open to pitch., which is over 1,000 aircraft.
The Asia/Pacific market holds promise. The largest A319 operators are China Eastern, Air China, China Southern, Indian Airlines, and Capital Airlines respectively. Together they account for 165. But this fleet averages just over nine years old, so it may be five years before they start replacing their fleet.
In Europe, there are several targets. EasyJet (143), British Airways (43), Lufthansa Group (116) are the top contenders. Lufthansa’s SWISS operation has already paved the way for the group with both CS models.
In Latin America, there are a total of 110 A319s in service. But this is the market where Airbus/Bombardier can also expect the toughest battles with Embraer’s E2. No obvious and easy targets.
We believe the Asia/Pacific market, in A319 replacement terms, could generate 200 CS orders. Europe could easily generate another 250 A319 replacements. Within the USA, when matters clear up and hopefully the barriers are removed, there are several A319 replacement opportunities. This market will also generate a tough battleground for Embraer. Currently, only Delta has shown its hand. American has 125 A319s and United has 63. Spirit has 31 and was one of Bombardier’s supporters at the DoC. There are 49 other A319s in the US market. We believe the US market could generate another 200 CS orders once the trade barriers are lifted.
All told, we see 650 A319 replacements that favor the C Series.
Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.