Here is our updated model. 

  • Airbus started the year with a bang – several big deals confirmed ensuring healthy order-level early in the year. Note the A321neo continues to accelerate past the A320neo.  Upsizing is back in vogue. The Spirit A319neo order is a surprise – there was considerable opinion the A220 had that in the bag. It could be that delivery slots for the A220 are too tight for the airline. Lessors accounted for several orders after a quiet 2019.
  • Only 31 deliveries, which is slow.  To beat last year’s deliveries, they need to be more than double this number. The China FAL shutdown isn’t going to help this at all.  The Alabama FAL expansion need is therefore ever more urgent.  Also, the Toulouse A321 FAL is now becoming very important.  Notice the A320ceo family deliveries are starting to end (see page 9).
  • For the MoM, the A321 continues to sweep the market.  A situation that isn’t good for Airbus or Boeing.
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Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.

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