Airbus single-aisle MoM advantage shrinks

There was an often-repeated statistic not too long that said Airbus' A321neo was outselling the MAX 9 five to one. Well, that number has contracted. Airbus's single-aisle MoM advantage shrinks every month. The MOM subject is something we focus on a lot. Using our daily delivery tracker, we offer the following chart. Back in early 2021, yes, Airbus was close to 6:1 ahead. But as Renton restarted deliveries and airlines selected the MAX 9, the ratio dropped to the current level (through 7/18/23) of 3.5:1. Is this good for Boeing? Absolutely. Industry analysts have chided Boeing for not offering the MoM airplane the market wants. Boeing ignored these voices and pushed the MAX 9 but will soon (hopefully) start delivering the MAX 10. Boeing does not separate its MAX models in its orders and deliveries. Consequently, we prefer to focus on deliveries because we can identify them. We know of 1.070 MAX 10 orders. This chart provides some guidance on market interest by model. The MAX 10 is the second most popular model by orders, more than three times as popular as the MAX 9. That sends a signal, doesn't it? We should reiterate that orders are not as real as deliveries. Look at the Southwest deliveries - a new MAX 8 every three days this year so far. Is this the airplane Southwest wants? No, they want the MAX 7 urgently to offset the -700NGs aging out early next year. Those MAX 7s need a lot of work to reinforce the fuselage - who pays for this? Southwest will never recover that investment on these airplanes. Is this bad for Airbus? Not at all. Whereas Boeing has a MAX family, Airbus has an A321neo family. Airbus offers three versions. of the A321neo - allowing lessors and airlines to tailor their fleet to meet markets. In addition, because Boeing is seeing a strong positive response to the larger MAXs, Airbus can feel confident that their focus on this end of the market is spot on. The truth is the duopoly needs balance to be effective. The MAX crisis exacerbated Boeing's struggles as they worked through the 787 and KC-46 issues. Here's hoping those issues are behind them now. The single-aisle MoM looks like a thriving market going forward. Does Boeing have what it needs to succeed? Probably because if you're a Boeing customer, you will buy a MA 10. As we have seen at Delta, that will eventually deploy over 200 A321s. as well.

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