An update on MAX vs NEO real world performance

Operators worldwide are desperate to get their new deliveries. We have posted several stories about the supply chain and OEM labor skills shortage that crimps these deliveries. Operators are incurring significant MRO expenses to keep aircraft in service, which they had planned to retire. It's "happy time" for lessors as they renew leases at much better rates. We are using excellent data from Skailark for this analysis. The analysis focuses on the A320neo and 737 MAX families, the largest segment and the four most important models in service. It is further divided by airline type. It will become apparent how differently each type of airline deploys these aircraft. The database starts in 1Q19 and goes through 1Q24, which provides The size of the balls indicate the number of flights. ULCC [caption id="attachment_82832" align="aligncenter" width="580"] Skailark; AirInsight[/caption] These operators average about 1,000-mile segments. The A320neo is the most popular model deployed, and the Airbus flies 4.4% longer segments. The A321neo flies nearly 11% further than the average for this segment. The lower chart shows the Airbus fleet is pushing much longer ranges. These are the A321neos. The Boeing aircraft to the right of the average line are MAX 9s. It would be fair to think that segment would use the MAX 10 were it available. Value [caption id="attachment_82833" align="aligncenter" width="580"] Skailark; AirInsight[/caption] These operators average about 1,300 mile segments. The MAX 8 is the most popular model deployed. The A321neo flies nearly 13% further than the MAX 9 in this segment. The lower chart shows the Airbus fleet has longer ranges. using A321neos. Boeing aircraft to the right of the average line are MAX 9s. Here, too, we think this segment would use the MAX 10 were it available. Full-Service Carriers [caption id="attachment_82835" align="aligncenter" width="580"] Skailark; AirInsight[/caption] These operators average about 1,000-mile segments. The Airbus models are slightly more popular models. The A321neo flies nearly 32% further than the segment average. This is a significant data point. The lower chart shows the Airbus fleet has longer ranges. using A321neos. We think this segment would also use the MAX 10 were it available. Summary Combining the airline segments and looking at the performance over the past four periods, we see this. [caption id="attachment_82836" align="aligncenter" width="580"] Skailark; AirInsight[/caption] Stage lengths do not vary much over the period. Fuel burn between the models on a per ASM basis is very close. MAX numbers show wide variances as the aircraft underwent grounding and re-entry into service. However, 2023 and 1Q24 show consistent and very competitive results. [caption id="attachment_82837" align="aligncenter" width="312"] Skailark; AirInsight[/caption] Consistent with previous analyses we have undertaken, Airbus gains significantly from offering the A321neo. Equally, Boeing suffers a significant disadvantage from the lack of the MAX 10 being operational. The tight competition demonstrates that OEMs and their customers use the equipment optimally. Deploying state-of-the-art aircraft remains the quickest way to NetZero.

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