Here is our updated model with April 2023 transactions. Subscribers have access to the detailed 13-page model.
Notes:
- Southwest Airlines undertook 36 transactions YTD. That translates into one every 3.3 days, which may be a record. Has any operator taken that many aircraft in so short a period?
- April saw a dropoff in transactions at 250 compared to 345 in March. In April 2022, there were 432 transactions.
- Using the added Page 4, you can drill down to identify where the lower numbers are. For example, select Boeing in the OEM menu and click 87 for April 2023. Then select the totals for the previous months of 2023 and note Boeing’s MAX transactions dropped in April. The rework at Renton will likely slow transactions for some time.
Paris Show
As we approach the summer airshow season, operators and OEMs may slow their orders to make the maximum splash in Paris. Everyone denies it, but when you see the glowing faces at these announcements, it’s clear there is pent-up excitement that has been brewing for weeks if not months. Given the financial numbers these orders amount to, that’s no surprise.
The combination of fuel price increases and the need to lower emissions drives airlines and lessors to find order and delivery slots. OPEC will do its best to ensure oil prices remain as high as possible, regardless of the Russian oil price cap. While this annoys operators and people buying airfares, higher fuel prices will drive demand for new aircraft. Meanwhile, AerCap noted airlines are buying older aircraft to ensure they have capacity. The only data point airlines seem to be able to count on is travel demand. This should drive more transactions this year.
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